Betting Favorites from Major League Baseball (MLB) for the 14th of May, 2021
🕗 5:40 PM EST: Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers (-230, 7)
The Tigers have been on a roll, winning the first two games of this series. Tonight, they're going with Tarik Skubal (-2.08 ERA) against the Red Sox's Hunter Dobbins (2.78 ERA). After initially opening at -200, the Tigers' price has been inflated by sharp bettors, reaching as high as -230 in some places.
According to VSiN's MLB Betting Splits, 85% of the moneyline bets and 87% of the moneyline dollars are on Detroit at DraftKings. At Circa Sports, the Tigers are raking in only 36% of the moneyline bets but a whopping 76% of the moneyline dollars. This suggests bigger wiseguy wagers backing the Tigers in Vegas.
Fun Fact: Home favorites off a win with a winning record are 98-48 (67%) with a 7% ROI this season. Favorites with line movement in their direction who made the playoffs the previous season are 150-72 (67%) with an 8% ROI.
🕗 6:07 PM EST: Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays (-160, 8)
Last night, the Rays took the series opener 11-9 as +125 road dogs. Tonight, they face Chris Bassitt (3.35 ERA) against Ryan Pepiot (3.86 ERA). The Blue Jays opened as -140 home favorites, but the line has since moved to -160 due to sharp bettors.
At DraftKings, 70% of the moneyline bets and 81% of the moneyline dollars are on the Blue Jays. In contrast, Circa Sports shows Toronto taking in 69% of the moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of the moneyline dollars. This split indicates heavy one-way betting on the Blue Jays.
Fun Fact: Home favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 95-54 (64%) with a 5% ROI. Below .500 favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 50-21 (70%) with a 14% ROI.
🕗 9:40 PM EST: Los Angeles Angels vs San Diego Padres (-190, 8.5)
This is the finale of a three-game series. The Padres took the first two games, with notable performances from Randy Vasquez (2.30 ERA) and their bullpen (3.32 ERA, 7th best in MLB). Tonight, they'll face Kyle Hendricks (5.30 ERA) and the Angels. The Padres opened as -175 home favorites, but the line has since shifted to -190 due to sharp bettors.
Sharps aren't afraid of the pricey chalk, with 85% of the moneyline bets and dollars at DraftKings, and 70% of the moneyline bets and dollars at Circa Sports supporting the Padres. Both books also show heavy one-way Pro and Joe support in favor of the Padres at home.
Fun Fact: Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their direction are 72-34 (68%) with a 9% ROI. Interleague home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 39-18 (68%) with a 13% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction who made the playoffs the previous season are 150-72 (67%) with an 8% ROI.
Top sports betting odds show that for the 5:40 PM EST game, the Tigers have odd of -230 in some places, attracting 85% of the moneyline bets and 87% of the moneyline dollars at DraftKings. On the other hand, for the 6:07 PM EST game, the Blue Jays have odds of -160, with 70% of the moneyline bets and 81% of the moneyline dollars supporting them at DraftKings. Lastly, for the 9:40 PM EST game, the Padres have odds of -190, with 85% of the moneyline bets and dollars at DraftKings, and 70% of the moneyline bets and dollars at Circa Sports backing them. Sports to consider are baseball and MLB. Sports betting involves placing wagers on the outcome of sports events, such as the moneyline bets.
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