Best Bets for MLB Gambling Data on August 2nd
The MLB betting landscape is shaping up for an interesting night as the Philadelphia Phillies face off against the San Diego Padres. Here's a look at the key factors influencing the betting trends for this highly anticipated matchup.
Michael McGreevy, the St. Louis Cardinals' starting pitcher, has struggled in his recent outings, posting a 6.17 ERA in his two July starts. On the other hand, Randy Vasquez of the Padres has been impressive, with a 2.79 ERA in four July starts. Tonight's rematch will feature Zac Gallen (7-12, 5.60 ERA) of the Diamondbacks and J.T. Ginn (2-2, 3.89 ERA) of the Athletics.
The San Diego Padres have been a force to reckon with at home, boasting a 27-13 (68%) record as home favorites this season. This is the 4th best record for home favorites in MLB. The line for the game opened as a pick'em, but has moved towards the Athletics (-120) due to sharp bets on the Athletics.
Meanwhile, the Phillies have been strong performers as home favorites, with a 31-15 (67%) record and a 6% ROI this season. Despite 42% of moneyline bets at Circa backing the Phillies, they are taking in 60% of moneyline dollars, indicating sharp bets on the Phillies. At DraftKings, the Padres are receiving 85% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars, but the line has moved towards the Phillies (-115).
The betting trends are also influenced by the historical success of the Phillies as odds-on favorites, with a 63.9% win rate. Home favorites in the second game of a series after winning the first game are 126-70 (64%) with a 4% ROI this season. This trend holds true for tonight's game, with the Phillies expected to win with win probabilities around 63% predicted by multiple models.
Reverse line movement (RLM) is a key factor in this match, indicating that professional bettors are backing the underdog, the San Diego Padres. However, detailed current RLM data for this specific match is not explicitly provided.
Additional contextual factors affecting betting behavior include starting pitchers, with Zack Wheeler being a strong performer at home this season, with a 6-1 record and a 2.00 ERA. The Phillies are also hitting .253 against lefties this season, the 7th best in MLB.
In the other Interleague matchup, the Oakland Athletics won last night's series opener against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Tonight's game will feature Tarik Skubal (10-3, 2.09 ERA) of the Tigers and Zack Wheeler (9-4, 2.56 ERA) of the Phillies.
Sources: [1] BettingPros MLB Betting Trends [2] Sports Insights Reverse Line Movement [3] Action Network Player Props [4] Covers.com MLB Betting Odds
The MLB betting landscape sees a significant shift towards the Philadelphia Phillies for their home game against the San Diego Padres, despite 42% of moneyline bets at Circa backing the Padres. This trend is influenced by the Phillies' strong performance as home favorites, having a 67% win record and a 6% ROI this season. Additionally, the Padres' moneyline bets and dollars are skewed at DraftKings, but the line has moved towards the Phillies (-115). Conversely, the Oakland Athletics' starting pitcher, Zack Wheeler, is a strong performer at home, with a 6-1 record and a 2.00 ERA. In sports betting, reverse line movement (RLM) indicates that professional bettors are backing the underdog, the San Diego Padres, although current RLM data for this specific match is not explicitly provided.
