Berlin's Moscow Ambassador Lambsdorff: Putin Appears Unwilling to Negotiate, Re-election Likely
In Lambsdorff's perspective, Putin shows no signs of being replaceable, and his forthcoming re-election seems imminent, according to Lambsdorff. The ambassador hasn't identified any splits within the Putin system or symptoms suggesting Putin's wellbeing may be compromised.
Lambsdorff maintains that enhanced EU sanctions against Russia have demonstrated tangible success. However, he emphasizes that sanctions are not an immediate solution; they serve to escalate the costs associated with certain behaviors. This tactic has been proven to yield results.
Lambsdorff observes a growing urge for peace among the Russian populace. Surveys point to a powerful yearning for a restoration of normality, with many dissatisfied by the inflation and constraints imposed by sanctions.
Upon assuming his ambassadorial role in Moscow, Lambsdorff took on one of the Foreign Office's most testing postings. In light of the Ukrainian invasion, Russian-German diplomatic relations have reached an all-time low, leading to multiple expulsions of diplomatic staff on both sides.
Additional Insights
- EU Sanctions Effectiveness: The EU's 15 sanction packages, targeting individuals, entities, and sectors, have impacted Russia but are hampered by the requirement for unanimity among member states. This consensus-based decision-making process limits the efficiency of the sanctions.
- Political Sentiments: The sources do not provide explicit details on the Russian population's sentiments towards peace. However, the EU's sanctions, while having some impact, are limited due to internal EU politics.
Given Lambsdorff's assertion, Putin's apparent reluctance to engage in negotiations is consistent with the wider geopolitical landscape between EU and Russia. Despite EU sanctions' demonstrable impact, their effectiveness remains limited by the EU's consensus-based decision-making process. The Russian population's sentiments towards peace are not explicitly discussed in the sources.
In conclusion, Berlin's ambassador to Moscow, Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, indicates Putin's unwillingness to negotiate and his likely re-election. Although limited by EU politics, EU sanctions against Russia have shown some impact, and a desire for peace among the Russian populace is emerging. However, the specific nuances of these sentiments are not yet fully apparent.
