Belarusian rival Svetlana Tikhanovskaya publicly declares Lukashenko as a war criminal
In the heart of Europe, Belarus continues to grapple with political unrest and repression. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the Belarusian dissident, and the democratic forces in exile remain active, but face severe challenges amid intensified repression inside Belarus and the country's deepening alliance with Russia, particularly in the shadow of the war in Ukraine.
Since the summer of 2020, Tikhanovskaya has been at the forefront of the democratic opposition, her symbolic leadership emerging after the brutal crackdown on protests that erupted following Lukashenko’s disputed election victory. Despite Lukashenko’s regime intensifying arrests, torture, and censorship at home, and Belarus’s support for Russia's war against Ukraine through military cooperation, the opposition has managed to keep the international spotlight on Belarus’s plight.
The current geopolitical context is difficult. Lukashenko’s regime has become more dependent on Russia, enabling further repression. Belarus hosts Russian military bases and supports Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Thousands of political prisoners remain detained, and over half a million Belarusians have fled the country due to repression and instability.
However, Tikhanovskaya’s movement persists, emphasizing the need for continued international support from the US, EU, and other democratic allies to sustain opposition efforts and humanitarian relief. Recent modest diplomatic wins include the partial release of some political prisoners, which happened after US diplomatic engagement, pointing to a fragile but possible opening for dialogue under certain pressures.
Looking ahead, the opposition in exile remains structured and engaged internationally but exerts limited direct influence inside Belarus due to the intense security crackdown and lack of free space within the country. Success depends heavily on continued and perhaps increased external diplomatic, economic, and moral support.
Belarus’s trajectory is closely tied to Russia’s regional ambitions, and the ongoing war in Ukraine affects the balance, with Belarus as an ally of Moscow facing isolation and sanctions which may gradually pressure Lukashenko’s regime. The hope articulated by Tikhanovskaya and observers is that persistent international pressure combined with internal societal resilience can eventually lead to democratic change, but this likely requires a long-term effort under difficult conditions.
In summary, Tikhanovskaya and the Belarusian democratic forces in exile remain a symbolic and active opposition, but their impact on Belarusian politics is constrained by state repression and geopolitical realities linked to the Russia-Ukraine war. Their prospects hinge on sustained international backing and possibly shifting geopolitical circumstances.
[1] Belarus in Focus
[2] Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
[3] BBC News
[4] The Washington Post
[5] The New York Times
- The ongoing political unrest and repression in Belarus, as well as its deepening alliance with Russia, have been covered extensively in 'general-news' outlets, including 'Belarus in Focus', 'Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty', 'BBC News', 'The Washington Post', and 'The New York Times'.
- In addition to general news, 'war-and-conflicts', 'crime-and-justice', and 'politics' sections of these media outlets have also reported on Belarus's support for Russia's war against Ukraine, their political prisoners, and the challenges faced by the opposition in exile, such as limitations on their direct influence inside Belarus due to intense security measures and lack of free space within the country.
