Behind-the-scenes look at Pope Francis's succession: Tears, cognac, and subtle agreements in conclaves
The timeless cycle continues yet again, as the passing of Pope Francis on April 21 signals the commencement of a conclave within the Vatican on May 7. The 133 cardinal electors will be barricaded until they select a new head of the Catholic Church. This sealed-off gathering, known as a conclave (originally from cum clave, Latin for "with the key"), will adhere to a timeline of 15 to 20 days post the vacancy of the Holy See, as stated in the apostolic constitution Universi Dominici Gregis. A two-thirds majority must be achieved by the cardinals to elect one of their own as the new pope.
The practice of confining cardinals can be traced back to the 13th century, when local citizens resorted to locking up prelates to hasten the emergence of a new pope. This tradition eventually took form after the election of Gregory X (1271) following years of drawn-out disputes and indecision between French and Italian cardinals in Viterbo, Italy[6].
The current accommodation for cardinal electors during the conclave, Casa Santa Marta, is a far cry from the conditions endured in the past. Yet, anxieties still run high as cardinals negotiate, dream, and even partake in small arrangements in the corridors, reminiscent of the Italian term combinazioni. Intrigues are not uncommon within the Roman Curia[7].
Throughout history, the electoral process has been marked by surprising twists and significant decisions. Favorites may not always emerge victorious, as the Church fears being divided along traditional and progressive lines[8]. In some cases, a compromise candidate has been chosen instead, as with the election of John Paul II in 1978[9].
Notably, John XXIII in 1958 was not initially the favorite; he was seen as a transitional pope[10]. Yet, he went on to launch the Second Vatican Council, the most significant reform of the Church in the 20th century. Similarly, Benedict XVI in 2013, after resigning from his position, did not expect the election of Cardinal Bergoglio (Pope Francis)[11]. Yet, behind the scenes, the unprecedented decision resulted in his election.
In the weeks leading up to Francis's death, whispers and murmurs of future elections have echoed through Vatican hallways and chapels, fueled by opposing factions critiquing the Argentine Jesuit's reforms[12]. Despite this, the College of Electors appointed primarily by Francis ensures that this conclave remains breeding ground for another potential surprise.
- The tradition of locking up cardinals to hasten the election of a new pope can be traced back to the 13th century, as observed in the election of Gregory X in Viterbo, Italy.
- The College of Cardinals, scheduled to gather in the Vatican on May 7 following Pope Francis's death, includes electors who were appointed mainly by the outgoing pope, fostering an environment ripe for another potential surprise.
- Intrigues are not unfamiliar within the Roman Curia, with cardinals engaging in negotiations and small arrangements, reminiscent of the Italian term combinazioni, suggesting that politics and general-news have a significant role in the popedom elections.
- Despite his initial underestimation, John XXIII launched the Second Vatican Council in 1958, the most significant reform of the Church in the 20th century, demonstrating that favorites may not always emerge victorious in the popedom elections.
