Bavaria's Political Landscape Shifts: Left Hopes to Enter Parliament, AfD Surges
The political landscape in Bavaria is shifting, with the latest GMS poll from September 30, 2025, revealing significant changes in party support. The Left is now hoping to enter the state parliament with 4 percent, a substantial improvement from their previous 1.5 percent. Meanwhile, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has seen a boost in approval ratings, reaching 19 percent from their 2023 election result of 14.6 percent.
The Greens have experienced a dip in support, currently at 11 percent, down from their 2023 election result of 14.4 percent. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) remains below their historically poor 2023 election result of 8.4 percent, with current support at 7 percent. The majority of the Christian Social Union (CSU) and Free Voters in Bavaria has lost ground, with combined support now at 50 percent, a decrease from their 2023 election result of 52.8 percent.
The Free Voters, led by Hubert Aiwanger, have seen a significant drop in support, now at 11 percent, a loss of 4.8 percentage points compared to the 2023 election. The CSU, under Markus Söder, has seen an increase in support, reaching 39 percent, two percentage points above their 2023 election result. The FDP and BSW both stand at 2 percent each, with no prospect of entering the state parliament.
The upcoming 2024 Bavarian state election is shaping up to be a significant shift from previous 2023 election results. The Left's improved prospects and AfD's high approval ratings indicate a potential realignment of voter preferences. Meanwhile, the CSU's slight increase in support, coupled with the Free Voters' loss in ground, suggests a potential challenge to the traditional political balance in Bavaria.
