Battlefield Shift: Examining the Impact of German Tank Deployment on Combat Equilibrium in Ukraine
In the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, a significant shift has been observed with the active deployment of Western tanks, notably German Leopard 2s, to bolster Ukrainian mechanized units. This move comes amidst Russia's persistent tank losses and reduced force quality, a result of prolonged attrition over the conflict's duration.
Initially, Germany's support for Ukraine was met with criticism, as it only sent a few thousand helmets. However, the decision to send tanks, a significant step for Germany, is noteworthy due to its long-standing resistance to materially supporting Ukraine. The specific model of Leopard 2 tanks Germany plans to provide is the Leopard 2A6, a more capable tank than the T-72B3 in terms of effective firing range and crew size.
Lithuania and Poland have also offered man-portable air defense systems, while the UK has provided 2000 NLAW antitank missiles and armored vehicles. Moreover, Turkey has agreed to allow Ukraine to coproduce TB2 Bayraktar drones.
The UK aims to provide its Challenger 2 tanks by the end of March, but the timeline for the bulk of the Leopards and US-supplied Abrams tanks could see their delivery anywhere from spring into the summer. Each of these tanks, including the Leopard 2A6, is an advanced and complex system that requires specialized maintenance and support.
Germany plans to train Ukrainian crews for its Leopards in Germany, but the training process takes time. Each Leopard (or Abrams, or Challenger) tank will have individual parts that are different from anything else Ukraine is sending through its logistics pathways, making logistics a significant challenge.
The war has become more static in recent months due to winter weather conditions, but this pattern is unlikely to hold as the weather warms, increasing the likelihood of offensives from both sides. If these patterns continue even as Ukraine receives the highly capable Leopard 2 and other tanks, their introduction has the potential to measurably impact the balance on the battlefield.
However, the maintenance and support challenges are the greatest factor in determining timelines for delivery. The Leopard 2A6 can be fitted with explosive reactive armor, although it is unknown if reactive armor is included with the vehicles Ukraine will receive. The delivery of the first fourteen Leopard tanks has been described as a "first step."
The course of the war so far provides evidence that Ukraine's disadvantage in numbers and the technological sophistication of its armored platforms can be offset by superior employment. This was demonstrated in the Battle of 73 Easting during the Gulf War, where methods of employment were crucial in determining the outcome of tank battles.
According to IISS estimates, Russia had 2927 main battle tanks in its formations before the war. However, Oryx, a website run by Dutch researchers, has documented 1646 tanks either destroyed or captured by Ukrainian forces. Of the total number of Russian T-90s estimated to be in service prior to the war, 11% have been lost. Similarly, 39% of T-72s and 64% of T-80s have been lost.
This degradation of Russian tank forces contrasts with Ukraine's reception of modern Western tanks, which have proven highly effective and significantly enhance Ukrainian armored combat capabilities. The war remains a war of attrition, with tank battles embedded within prolonged engagements across contested front lines. Ukraine's tactical use of these tanks is integrated into a broader strategy aimed at forcing costly Russian advances and defending critical positions, even if some counterattacks result in high Ukrainian casualties.
- The delivery of Leopard 2 tanks from Germany, Challenger 2 tanks from the UK, and Abrams tanks from the US are complex systems that necessitate specialized maintenance and support, making logistics a significant challenge.
- Despite Russia's reduced force quality, the ongoing urban warfare in Ukraine remains a war of attrition, with prolonged engagements across contested front lines.
- Intelligence gathered from the conflict suggests that Ukraine's employment of its modern Western tanks, like the Leopard 2A6, has the potential to measurably impact the balance on the battlefield.
- In addition to providing tanks, several countries like Lithuania, Poland, the UK, and Turkey have also offered military equipment and systems such as man-portable air defense systems and drones to support Ukraine's defense.
- As the weather warms, the static nature of the recent front lines is likely to change, increasing the likelihood of offensives from both sides and further tests in urban warfare.
- The political landscape surrounding support for Ukraine has been influenced by factors like leadership decisions and defense policies, with Germany's recent step to send tanks being a notable example.
