Baseball Wagers for Today: Chances, prophecies, and selections for the games on May 2 in MLB

** Fastballs 'N' Foul Poles: MLB Best Bets for May 2**

Today, all 30 MLB squads take the field, but rain could potentially disrupt games in Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta. Let's focus on the action, though. One interleague series is the order of the day, unlike the meager single series we saw during the week.

Interestingly, underdogs had quite a day yesterday, bucking recent trends. Road teams also came out victorious seven times, pushing the road winning percentage over 40% for the first time in a while. Home teams could face some negative regression moving ahead, with visitors seemingly on a roll now that everyone's in full swing for the season.

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Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays (-145, 8.5)

7:07 p.m. ET

Logan Allen and Chris Bassitt duel north of the border in tonight's series opener. This one's shaping up to be a tough sled for the Guardians, with Allen facing a challenging lineup.

Allen boasts three good starts and two terrible ones so far, getting clobbered by the Red Sox last time out to the tune of seven runs on nine hits in just 4.1 innings. His other bad outing came against the Padres in his first start of the season, where he walked five in 5.1 innings and somehow only allowed four runs with 12 of the 24 batters he faced reaching base.

His opponents' current wOBA against LHP ranks 13th, 28th, 30th, 22nd, and 8th—the Blue Jays rank 5th at .338. So this is, theoretically, the worst matchup that Allen's faced thus far. And the two above average lineups that have faced him have amassed 11 runs on 16 hits with eight walks and just three strikeouts in 9.2 innings of work.

Allen's SwStr% is a mere 5.9%—ironically, his highest SwStr% came last time out versus Boston. The Blue Jays excel at making contact and avoiding strikeouts, so Allen better hope those batted balls find gloves. I'm taking my chances that they don't.

Should Stephen Vogt need to let Allen take one for the team, Vince Velasquez could be the next option, which might swing the TOR Team Total and run lines into play. But ultimately, this one's shaping up to be my favorite bet of the night.

Bet: Blue Jays 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+105)

Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox (-110, 9)

7:10 p.m. ET

The Twins and Red Sox clash tonight at Fenway Park. Boston will be glad to be back home after succumbing to the Blue Jays in their last two outings. Minnesota, on the other hand, has yet to find its footing after blowing out the Cubs in Game 1 before dropping the following three.

The Matchup

Joe Ryan takes the mound for the Twins with a strong 3.18 ERA, a 3.43 xERA, and a 3.47 FIP, but this could be a tough matchup for him. He's a fly ball pitcher who throws a ton of strikes, which doesn't bode well for a balmy evening in Boston with a nice breeze blowing out. Brayan Bello, Red Sox starter, is more of a ground ball pitcher. Ryan's primary pitch is his fastball, which he throws nearly 60% of the time. His top two secondaries are a slider (21%) and a splitter (15%).

By Pitch Type Value on Statcast, the Red Sox rank 12th in fastball batting value, third in slider batting value, and lead the league by a wide margin on splitters. In fact, only eight teams have a positive run value against splitters, and Boston's 6.0 mark is more than double the next closest team.

Bello is still trying to find his groove with a 3.27 ERA but a 7.37 xERA and a 6.33 FIP in his two starts. The Twins don't draw many walks and prefer to make contact, so I don't think Bello's early strikeout struggles are too significant here. Bello has only allowed a 36.4% Hard Hit% in his two outings and a 53.1% GB%.

The Bullpens

Minnesota's bullpen had a heavy workload yesterday in a game that was delayed by rain twice. The Red Sox got length from Tanner Houck before Justin Slaten had an eighth-inning blow-up yesterday. He’s about the only arm unavailable. I think they right the ship tonight.

Wager: Red Sox -110

Chicago Cubs (-120, 9) at Milwaukee Brewers

8:10 p.m. ET

NL Central rivals meet as the Cubs and Brewers go head-to-head for the first time this season. Both teams were expected to vie for first place, and every game between them is crucial.

Ben Brown and Quinn Priester are the scheduled starters for today; expect runs in this one. Brown has had some bad luck with a 6.04 ERA, but a 4.85 xERA and a 4.17 FIP in his six starts. He's struggled with control, walking 11.1% of the batters he's faced, and gave up six runs on nine hits to the Phillies in his last outing. He's had issues getting deep in games, a concern given the difficulty of finding quality relief pitching.

The Brewers' 103 wRC+ is slightly above average and ranks 15th in MLB. They have a K% under 20% against righties and a BB% over 10%, so a pitcher like Brown may not find many swings and misses but could face plenty of free passes.

The Cubs have been one of the top offenses throughout the season, and Priester is a pitch-to-contact guy with few standout attributes. He has a 20% Chase Rate and just an 8.6% SwStr% over his four starts. Priester sports a 3.79 ERA, but a 4.57 xERA and a 4.27 FIP, suggesting negative regression could be on the horizon. He's surrendered a .343 wOBA with a .346 xwOBA, so I don't see much sustainability to his 77.7% LOB%. The high GB% (57.6%) is undoubtedly helping with the low K% and the 14.1% BB%.

We should see a lot of baserunners early in this game, and there could be more in the later innings as well. Both bullpens have high walk rates and low strikeout rates, increasing the chance for baserunners in the later frames.

It's a lofty total at 9, but getting it at plus money looks good to me.

Bet: Cubs/Brewers Over 9 (+102)

Possible Additions (if space permits)

Top Picks from the MLB Betting Splits for May 2nd
MLB Picks Today: Greg Peterson Best Bets for May 3
MLB Top Picks Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends for May 2
In the MLB game between Cleveland Guardians and Toronto Blue Jays, the best bet could be the Blue Jays 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+105).
In the matchup between Minnesota Twins and Boston Red Sox, the Red Sox -110 seems like a wager worth considering.
The Chicago Cubs (-120, 9) and Milwaukee Brewers game might see a lot of baserunners, making the Over 9 (+102) an intriguing pick.
For the best bets for May 3, consult Greg Peterson's MLB best bets armed with overnight lines.
Utilize our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including tracking sheets, to make informed wagers on sports such as baseball (MLB).