Baseball Wagers for Today: Betting Probabilities, Forecasts, and Picks Specifically for May 3rd (MLB)
MLB Best Bets Today, May 3
A wet Saturday's on the docket for May 3, with 15 games scheduled, but rain may disrupt or postpone games in St. Louis, Cincinnati, Atlanta, and other locations. Weather is crucial to consider due to its impact on players, game length, and starting pitchers. However, weather predictions can be unreliable, so always check game statuses closer to the first pitch.
Top MLB Sources:- Today's MLB Games- Parlay Calculator- Greg Peterson's MLB Daily Lines- MLB Odds- MLB Betting Splits
Recent changes in pitching rotations surfaced in the Cubs/Brewers game, as the Brewers attempted to sneak an opener for Quinn Priester, which backfired. To eliminate confusion in such situations, all picks will be listed as "Action."
This article runs Monday-Saturday, with preview for Sunday Night Baseball featured on Sundays. In addition, you'll find MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines for this year.
Tracking sheet and previous seasons' tracking are available for transparency: 2024, 2023, 2022. All odds are from DraftKings, as they are easily accessible and some of our betting tools are designed with them in mind. Be sure to shop around for the best lines, as sometimes DK will be competitive but often they won't.
Feel free to leverage my opinions and thoughts, along with our suite of MLB betting tools including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen's Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson's Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates (-122, 9)
- 4:05 p.m. ET
In this matinee matchup in Pittsburgh, the Padres took the first game of the series. Randy Vasquez faces off against Bailey Falter. Vasquez sports a 4.28 ERA but has a concerning 5.85 xERA and 5.11 FIP. His strikeout rate is low (10 K vs 19 BB in 27.1 IP), but Vasquez has managed contact well with a 31.9% Hard Hit% and 7.7% Barrel%.
The Pirates have struggled to draw walks in recent days, with 8.8% since April 19th. The Padres, however, boast a top-10 offense against lefties: .320 wOBA, 106 wRC+. The Pirates are 25th in wOBA against righties (.293) and have an 82 wRC+. San Diego's bullpen leads the league in ERA and ranks 3rd in reliever FIP while the Pirates rank 19th and 24th, respectively. Clearly, the Padres have an edge in both offense and bullpen, making them a solid wager.
Pick: Padres +102
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers (-110, 8.5)
- 7:10 p.m. ET
This game could go either way, featuring the Cubs and Brewers. Jameson Taillon pitches for the division leaders, and Jose Quintana is the starter for the Brewers, currently four games behind the division lead.
The Cubs are the league's best offense against lefties: .378 wOBA, 143 wRC+. They've struck out only 15.9% of the time against southpaws and have a powerful on-base percentage. Quintana is a prime candidate for regression, sporting a 4.42 xERA and 4.31 xFIP, while his 3.35 FIP can be attributed primarily to his low HR rate.
Taillon offers a consistent performance, with a 4.01 ERA, 4.28 xERA, and 4.07 FIP. He limits walks and
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles (-115, 9)
- 7:15 p.m. ET
In Game 2 of their matchup, the Royals and Orioles play, with Baltimore enjoying a 1-0 lead. Baltimore was victorious yesterday thanks to Dean Kremer's seven shutout innings. The Royals will face Tomoyuki Sugano, while Kris Bubic starts for the Orioles.
Sugano saw success in his most recent start, increasing his velo and limiting his worst pitches. He struck out a career-high 15.8% of batters faced, an indication that the Orioles may have found a new approach. On the other hand, Kris Bubic brings a 2.25 ERA, 3.70 xERA, and a 2.89 FIP to the mound.
The Orioles rank 23rd in wOBA against lefties (.293) and are worse against righties with a .231 wOBA and 48 wRC+. Conversely, the Royals have the worst offense against right-handed pitching (.281 wOBA, 76 wRC+). The total has been adjusted to 9 due to warm, humid weather with a wind blowing out, potentially favoring the long ball. However, both pitchers have shown success limiting hard contact, making this a difficult game to predict.
Pick: Kansas City Royals/Baltimore Orioles Under 9 (-115)
Sources
- Betting Splits for May 3
- DFS Strategy for May 3
- Historical Wins/Losses for Cubs/Brewers on May 3
- Player Prop Information
- Considering the weather forecast for potential rain delays in several games, it's crucial to keep an eye on the developing sports betting odds at sportsbooks, as they could be influenced by weather conditions.
- Weather is a significant factor in sports betting, impacting player performance, game length, and the effectiveness of starting pitchers. However, weather predictions can sometimes be unreliable, so checking game statuses closer to the first pitch is advisable.
- The San Diego Padres seem to have an edge over the Pittsburgh Pirates in terms of offense and bullpen, making them a solid bet, especially given their strong performance against lefties.
- The matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers could go either way, but the Cubs' impressive offense against lefties, combined with potential regression for Brewers' starter Jose Quintana, indicates they might be worth considering.
- In the game between the Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles, the total has been adjusted to 9 due to warm, humid weather with a wind blowing out, but both pitchers have shown success in limiting hard contact, making for a challenging game to predict.
