Baseball Wagers for Today: Betting Probabilities, Forecasts, and Choices for April 26 in MLB Action
Title: MLB Best Bets Today April 26: Revamped & Refreshed
Get set for a thrilling day on the diamond with 16 games coming your way in Major League Baseball! Games will be played in Cleveland and Detroit, although you'll be disappointed if you were hoping to catch the Blue Jays vs. Yankees – rain in the Bronx forced a postponement.
Here are our top picks for an action-packed day!
TOP MLB RESOURCES:- Today's MLB Games- Parlay Calculator- Greg Peterson's MLB Daily Lines- MLB Odds- MLB Betting Splits
This article runs Monday-Saturday, and we'll be bringing you a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. We'll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines available.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency, I've also included tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022). I plan to incorporate more props, derivatives, and perhaps even some parlay bets in order to diversify my MLB portfolio and tackle different markets. Last season's strategies didn't work as effectively as they previously had, so I'm eager to make some changes, including adjusting my bet distribution by type and market.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook, as they are widely accessible to readers and due to some of our handy betting tools. Don't forget to shop around for the best lines! Sometimes you'll find them at DK. Often, you won't. Shopping around and scoring the best lines will help maximize your return.
Feel free to leverage my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen's Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson's Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
New York Mets (-192, 9) at Washington Nationals
- 4:10 p.m. ET
The "double negative" is something we usually steer clear of, but this game presents an exception. The Mets vs. Nationals features Clay Holmes facing Brad Lord, and the Mets are heavily favored. The -1.5 run line is juiced at -115, but this is an extreme mismatch.
Let's start with Holmes, who has a 3.16 ERA with a 3.20 xERA and a 2.13 FIP in five starts for the Mets. Despite concerns about his health due to a lack of experience as a starter at the MLB level since 2018, he's been effective with 34 strikeouts in 25.2 innings, despite a modest drop in velocity (88.5 mph) compared to his career average (93 mph). He's issued 13 walks, but the Nationals rank 24th in BB% this season.
Holmes has allowed one earned run in three of his last four starts while racking up 30 strikeouts against the Marlins twice, Twins, and Cardinals. His worst start came when he faced the Marlins for a second straight time, allowing four runs on five hits in 5.1 innings, but he also struck out 10 of 23 batters in that outing. He could have benefited from some BABIP luck, as he allowed an absurd .348 BABIP that game, and Broncos pitcher Huascar Brazoban allowed two inherited runners to score.
Lord joined the Nationals as a long reliever but got thrust into the starting rotation due to injury. He's made three starts and allowed six runs on 13 hits over 1.1 innings of work, but his last two starts came against the Pirates and Rockies. One was at Coors Field, but it was still the Rockies, who are struggling this season. He's struck out 10 and walked 7 as a starter and he's a fly ball pitcher with a 36.6% GB%. With rain forecasted, it will be warm and humid with a helping breeze to right field at Nationals Park. Holmes should largely be unaffected by the conditions, but I think this is a spot where some regression and the weather combine to give Lord a rough day.
Lastly, the Nationals pen, which has poor numbers as it is, is a little taxed. Kyle Finnegan blew a save yesterday. Jorge Lopez blew one Wednesday. Those two guys would be working a third time in four days, while Jose Ferrer has worked three straight days. Meanwhile, the Mets pen, which did trip up last night, has nobody working a back-to-back and only Brazoban has worked three of the last four days.
Oh, one more thing. The Mets just welcomed back Francisco Alvarez. While they lost their first game with him in the lineup this season, they were 58-27 when he started last year and 31-46 when he didn't. He's an integral piece of this puzzle. Jeff McNeil came back yesterday too.
Pick: Mets Run Line -1.5 (-115)
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks (-120, 9)
- 8:10 p.m. ET
Holmes and Merrill Kelly will start the matchup between the Braves and Diamondbacks. This is a one-sided handicap for me, as I'm focused on Holmes. Despite a 3.22 ERA, 4.52 xERA, and 4.24 FIP, there are some clear indicators of regression lurking in his profile. Holmes is running a .204 BABIP and a 79.4% LOB%, so he's stranded the large amount of hitters he has walked.
The Diamondbacks lead MLB in BB% at 11.2%. They are third in wOBA and fifth in wRC+. To this point, Holmes has started against the Dodgers, Phillies, Blue Jays, and Twins. At their current rankings, those teams are 9th, 10th, 22nd, and 23rd in wOBA.
Last season, Holmes finished with a 15-walk rate in 68.1 innings. This season, he has 14 walks in just 22.1 innings. He's still doing a pretty decent job of missing bats and keeping the ball in the park, but the degree of difficulty ramps up significantly here, as the Diamondbacks are a top-5 offense. With regression signs in his profile, he'll face a major test against one of the best teams in the league.
Pick: Diamondbacks 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+105)
Tampa Bay Rays at San Diego Padres (-142, 7)
- 8:40 p.m. ET
Ryan Pepiot gets his first road start of the season, as the Rays continue their road trip in San Diego. I wasn't surprised to see a total of 7 in this one given the ERAs of 4.82 and 6.04 for the starting pitchers. However, I have a different angle for this contest.
Pepiot has struggled in the warm outdoor conditions of Tampa, which was expected. But, he could fare better in this contest, as Petco Park is typically friendly to pitchers. The weather conditions should help Pepiot, as it will be dry and less humid. But, I'm actually looking at Pepiot's Strikeouts prop in this one.
To this point, Pepiot has faced the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Pirates, and Rockies in his five starts. In order, those teams rank 25th, 29th, 27th, 13th, and 30th in SwStr%. The Padres are fifth in that department. Pepiot has gotten a 79.3% Z-Contact% this season. He hasn't had a high number of chases, except for his starts against the Rockies and Red Sox. But, he's been able to get a lot of swings and misses in the zone.
The best team in the league at making contact in the strike zone? You guessed it. The Padres, whose 89.9% Z-Contact% is the best in baseball. The Z-Contact% for Pepiot's five opponents so far? 26th, 28th, 22nd, 18th, and 29th. This isn't good news for Pepiot, as he faces a top-notch team with a solid offense and positive regression signs.
Pick: Ryan Pepiot (TB) Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers (-285, 8.5)
- 9:10 p.m. ET
The Dodgers are heavily favored against the Pirates, who will send Roki Sasaki to the mound. Sasaki has yet to record a win through five starts, but he's gone at least 5 innings in his last two outings as he grows more comfortable with his pitches. Dave Roberts has extended his pitch count a bit more. Sasaki went 81 and 79 pitches in his last two starts against the Cubs and Rangers.
This is a game where Sasaki could potentially record his first win. The Dodgers desperately want him to get that first win after two impressive outings, at least statistically (5 ER in 12 innings). Sasaki's velocity dropped slightly in his last start, sparking concern, but I was encouraged by what I saw as his outing progressed. Not only did the velo pick up, but Sasaki made some adjustments. He threw his slider more than he had in any other start, and he pulled back on his fastball usage, leading to fewer strikeouts. Hitters are batting .244 with a .330 xBA and .378 SLG against Sasaki's fastball, but his slider and curveball have generated a 45.7% and 44.4% Whiff%.
I believe this is a case where Sasaki is maturing on the mound. With Roberts trusting him more and his pitches becoming more refined, I think the Dodgers will make a push at a win tonight.
Pick: Roki Sasaki (LAD) To Record A Win (+170)
Enrichment Data:
Here is an overview of Greg Peterson's picks for April 27:
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: Over 7.5 Runs
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals:
- Royals Moneyline: +117
- Over 7.5 Runs
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: Picks unknown
- Seattle Mariners Run Line: Mariners Run Line -1.5 +147
These picks come from Greg Peterson's analysis of the starting pitchers, team dynamics, and line values, offering a strategic approach to betting on today's MLB games.
- Despite challenges in the previous season, expert picks from Greg Peterson for MLB best bets continue with an emphasis on diversifying the portfolio and adjusting strategies.
- On April 27, Greg Peterson's MLB picks include the possibility of taking the New York Mets (-192, 9) at Washington Nationals due to Clay Holmes' performances and disadvantages for the opposition.
- At the same time, Arizona Diamondbacks (-120, 9) face the Atlanta Braves, with Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks' strong offense posing a potential challenge for Greg Peterson's chosen pick.
- The Tampa Bay Rays visit the San Diego Padres, presenting an opportunity to wager on Ryan Pepiot's strikeouts, given his historically high strikeout rates against opposing teams with higher SwStr% than the Padres.
- Rounding out Greg Peterson's April 27 MLB picks, the Pittsburgh Pirates take on the Los Angeles Dodgers, with Greg Peterson seemingly favoring Roki Sasaki for his first win in a more refined outing with increased pitch count and adjustments to his pitch selection.
