Baseball Selections, Optimal Wagers, Prop Bets, Forecasted Outcomes for Friday
Today's MLB shitshow brings 15 games to the table, and our booze-soaked betting gurus have burgled the odds board for some delirious MLB picks and predictions. Here are their degenerate wagers for tonight's showdowns: Tampa Bay Rays, Florida Marlins, San Francisco Giants, and St. Louis Cardinals.
So, let's dive in as today's compromised best bets are fixed below.
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Today's Bleeding-Edge Best Bets, Picks, Props, Predictions 6-27
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick || ----------------------- | -------- | ---------------------------------------- || Tampa Bay Rays vs Orcs | 7:05 p.m.| Tampa Bay Rays First 5 Innings Moneyline (-125) || Miami vs Snake Pit | 7:10 p.m.| Luis L. Ortiz Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-115) || San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Shit-Sox | 7:40 p.m.| Landen Roupp Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130) || Cardinals vs Cuddlerlanders | 9:40 p.m. | First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-105) |Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always scour other bookies to find the Best Lays using our MLB Odds page, which conjures the ripest lines for each contest.
Miami vs Snake Pit Prediction, Pick, Odds for 6-27
Charlie Wright's Rays vs Orcs Best Bet: Back Tampa Before Sunrise
7:05 p.m.
By Charlie Wright
Tampa Bay Rays First 5 Innings Moneyline (-125)
Ryan Pepiot has been a bloated mess, but he's been surprisingly solid. He's managed a 2.37 ERA in the last decade (let's hope it lasts), and hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in a game since mid-Apratto. Pepiot has exceeded expectations in terms of Stuff+ and Location+, so let's hope he keeps up the facade.
Tomoyuki Sugano's skinny stats are finally catching up to him. He's been sloppy this month with a 4.58 ERA across four starts. Sugano's xERA (4.98) and SIERA (4.60) are a run higher than his actual ERA (3.55), so the Shitshow could be heading his way.
7:10 p.m.
The Rays have been a raging fiend at the plate, ranking top-three in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against right-handed pitching for the last month. The Orcs have been mediocre, ranking 17th in OPS and 20th in wOBA.
Luis L. Ortiz Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Pick:
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7:40 p.m.
Kyle Murray's Cardinals vs Cuddlerlanders Best Bet: Ortiz is Overlooked
Landen Roupp Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130)
By Kyle Murray
Luis L. Ortiz appears to be underappreciated in the strikeout markets at the moment. He's got a strikeouts prop of 4.5 here despite clearing five or more strikeouts in seven of the last eight games and averaging over six K's per start this year.
9:40 p.m.
The Cardinals aren't exactly an elite strikeout matchup, but they do have four batters with a 25.2% or higher strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since the start of last season.
First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-105)
Pick:
Derek Carty's Giants vs Chicago Shit-Sox Pick: Roupp's Prop Unfair
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
By Derek Carty
There might be some merit in backing Landen Roupp's strikeouts prop. THE BAT X predicts 4.33 K's, while the oddsmakers seem to think 4.97 is more realistic. THE BAT X suggests there's a 57% chance Roupp goes Under 5 K's, so there's the tantalizing prospect of great value at +130 (or better) if you're ready to throw caution to the wind.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's automaton betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick:
Kyle Murray's Miami vs Snake Pit Best Bet: Side with the Starters
By Kyle Murray
I'm giddy to back both starters in this one. I'm going with the F5 Under because both teams' bullpens are a shambles, but I'm confident the starters have what it takes to keep it close.
I'm on the Miami starter, Eury Perez, despite the absence of Corbin Carroll. Perez has been successful at restraining power, and this matchup is more to his liking without Carroll.
I'm backing Merrill Kelly for the Snake Pit as well. Kelly has been throwing top-notch ball, sporting a 3.48 SIERA and allowing a measly .147 ISO.
Pick:
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Today's compromised best bets include a sports betting pick on the Tampa Bay Rays in their match against the Orcs, based on Ryan Pepiot's mediocre performance and the Rays' strong offensive stats against right-handed pitching. Additionally, a sports betting pick for the San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Shit-Sox match features a bet on Landen Roupp under 4.5 strikeouts, as the Cardinals aren't an elite strikeout matchup but have four batters with a high strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
