Baseball Picks for Today: Odds, Forecasts, and Recommendations for June 11 in Major League Baseball
Today's MLB Matches:
Mark the day, June 11, as another action-packed day in the MLB! Seven games start at 3:35 p.m. ET or later, providing a perfect escape from the daily grind.
Now, let's talk weather, a crucial factor in betting, much like luck's spoiled niece. Fortunately, the forecast is spotless, promising a clean slate for today's games. Be aware that weather might influence pitcher props or games where teams must rush against the rain and launch early pitches.
Must-Have MLB Resources:
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Check out my tracking sheet here for transparency purposes. My record from VSiN spans three seasons— 2024, 2023, 2022.
Odds are primarily from DraftKings Sportsbook, as they are accessible to readers and because of some of our betting tools. However, always remember to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they'll be at DK, but often they'll be elsewhere. Score the best deals!
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Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles (@Baltimore, 6:35 p.m. ET)
Our starters for tonight are Casey Mize (Tigers) and Zach Eflin (Orioles). This encounter appears evenly matched, similar to flipping a coin. Eflin has shone over his last two starts, striking out 15 batters in 13 innings against just one walk.
Mize, with his lengthy injury history, missed 15 days from May 8-23. In his comeback, he's given up seven runs, six earned, on 18 hits with a 13/7 K/BB ratio. Lately, Mize lacks the edge in his pitches, with a 46.7% Hard Hit% and five Barrels. Eflin, on the other hand, is close to resuming his old form.
Baltimore's bullpen is unpredictable, while the Tigers boast one of the league's best relief units. I prefer keeping this as a 1st 5 wager and a run line play.
Pick: Orioles 1st 5 Run Line (+100)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox (@Boston, 7:10 p.m. ET)
The Rays and Red Sox lock horns in their AL East rivalry, featuring Zack Littell (Rays) and Walker Buehler (Red Sox) on the mound. My focus is on the Red Sox offense, as Littell has performed well but is on the verge of a significant regression.
Littell has surrendered 13 runs in his first three starts of the season and has allowed 20 runs over his last 10 starts spanning 63.2 innings. However, let's dig deeper. His 2.83 ERA hides a 4.84 FIP in that span. He's given up 12 homers, but 10 of them were solo shots. Sequencing has greatly aided him during that stretch. Issuing only eight walks is a factor, but still.
The best strategy for a pitcher against the Red Sox is to induce swings and misses. Regrettably, Littell doesn't have that ability. The Red Sox excel when they avoid striking out, as demonstrated by their sixth-highest wOBA for the season with the fourth-highest K%. Littell's inability to strike out batters doesn't bode well for this matchup.
The Rays bullpen is in a pickle right now due to their string of close games, resulting in tired arms. Consequently, I prefer the 1st 5 and full game Team Total plays for the Red Sox.
Pick: Red Sox 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+100); Red Sox Team Total Over 4.5 (-120)
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- With the upcoming games between the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox, consider the Red Sox Team Total Over 4.5 (-120). Their offense has performed well against Zack Littell, who could be due for a significant regression.
- Don't forget to check out the first 5 innings of the Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles game, as the Orioles 1st 5 Run Line (+100) could be a promising play given the unpredictability of the Baltimore bullpen compared to the Tigers' solid relief unit.
