The Showdown: Red Sox vs. Yankees
Baseball matchup analysis: Red Sox square off against Yankees, offering odds, forecasts, and optimal wagers for June 8th MLB contest
Get ready, baseball fans! This weekend, the MLB schedule throws a curveball with a Red Sox vs. Yankees series - the first one of the season between these two historical franchises. The three-game set will end on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball, shining the spotlight on the decisive nail-biter between these age-old rivals. While they'll face off again the following weekend, the Red Sox's trip to Seattle prevents them from securing an ESPN game on Sunday night.
The Yankees have been hot favorites, and their lead has only grown based on the early betting action.
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How to Catch Red Sox vs. Yankees
Where: ESPN
When: Sunday June 8, 7:10 p.m. ET
MLB Odds for Red Sox vs. Yankees
Boston Red Sox +193 // New York Yankees -240
Total: 7.5 (-118/-102)
Game Preview: Red Sox vs. Yankees
So far in this series, the teams have dished out high-scoring wins, with the Yankees taking Friday's game 9-6 and the Red Sox striking back with a 10-7 victory on Saturday. If Boston manages a win on Sunday, it will be a significant boost for them. Alex Cora's squad hasn't won consecutive games since May 23-24 and suffered a five-game losing streak right after those back-to-back victories.
Boston heads into this match with a 31-35 record despite a positive +13 run differential. Meanwhile, the Yankees boast a comfortable AL East lead, thanks to a +99 run differential and a 39-24 record.
On Sunday, Carlos Rodon will take the mound for the Yankees. Rodon has a 2.49 ERA with a 2.72 xERA and a 2.93 FIP in his 79.2 innings of work across 13 starts this season. With a reduced home run rate and increased ground ball percentage, Rodon's numbers have improved this year. In comparison, last season, he posted a 3.96 ERA and a 4.39 FIP, but he's already surpassed his fWAR total for last season in nearly 100 fewer innings.
The Red Sox will counter with rookie right-hander Hunter Dobbins. Dobbins' 4.06 ERA, 3.96 xERA, and 3.38 FIP are the marks of his 44.1 innings of work in seven starts and a couple of relief appearances. Though Dobbins doesn't strike out batters with regularity (37 Ks in 44.1 innings), he possesses a 10.8% SwStr%, suggesting a hidden swing-and-miss element in his pitching arsenal.
Dobbins has made a couple of relief appearances already throwing 52 and 60 pitches each, so expect his pitch count to be around the 70-75 range in this start. Despite the high-scoring games in this series, the Red Sox bullpen is in relatively good shape to carry the load. On the other hand, the Yankees' bullpen arms haven't worked back-to-back days, ensuring a full roster available for action on Sunday.
Given the Red Sox's strong offensive showing against left-handed pitching, a robust .348 wOBA, and .277/.359/.433 slash line, they have a solid chance at such a generous underdog price. Although Rodon is a clear improvement and the Yankees are the superior team, the price may have grown a bit inflated at this point. The +1.5 at -108 is a viable alternative for a wager.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Player Props
Jazz Chisholm Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+330); Over 0.5 Runs (+115)
Dobbins has struggled against left-handed hitters this season, with a .313/.352/.542 batting line and .382 wOBA. Chisholm has been on a tear at the plate since his return and has a penchant for aggressiveness on the basepaths. Collectively, Red Sox catchers have only thrown out 16 of 76 would-be base stealers during the season. Chisholm put up three hits and swiped two bags in Friday's game but didn't start against lefty Garrett Crochet the following day.
Additional Insights
MLB Stats and Trends (as of June 8, 2022)[1]
- The Red Sox rank atop the list of MLB teams against left-handed pitching with a .348 wOBA and .277/.359/.433 slash line.
- Carlos Rodón leads the AL with a 2.43 ERA and is ranked 4th in WHIP (1.00).
- Hunter Dobbins' 4.06 ERA hides a strong strikeout rate, with just over a 10% swinging-strike percentage (SwStr%).
Bet on the Boston Red Sox as underdogs in the MLB game against the New York Yankees, with odds of +193, considering their strong offensive showing against left-handed pitching and the potential for an inflated price on the Yankees.
Keep an eye on Jazz Chisholm for player prop bets, taking advantage of Dobbins' struggles against left-handed hitters, Chisholm's aggressiveness on the basepaths, and the Red Sox catchers' below-average success in throwing out would-be base stealers.
