Baseball Forecast for August 12th, Expert Opinions, Statistical Projections in MLB
In the world of Major League Baseball, Wednesday, August 13, 2025, promises an exciting day of action. Here's a rundown of the expert picks, analysis, and betting notes for the day's games:
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds (5:10 PM ET)
Reds pitcher Hunter Greene, returning from injury, brings strong strikeout potential despite some control concerns, while Phillies starter Cristopher Sánchez has a solid ERA but a weaker bullpen. The expert pick favours the Reds moneyline at +125 based on Greene’s strikeout upside and value odds.
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles (6:35 PM ET)
Orioles’ Trevor Rogers boasts an excellent 1.44 ERA and minimal home run allowance, but Mariners’ Logan Gilbert also has strong metrics with 12.7 K/9 and a solid bullpen. The recommended bet is Under 9 runs for this game, with a handicapped total near 8.4 runs, reflecting expectations of a lower-scoring affair.
Nationals vs. Royals, Tigers vs. White Sox, Twins vs. Yankees - Under Bets
Additional picks from various analysts include Nationals vs. Royals Under 9 runs (-120), Tigers vs. White Sox Under 8.5 runs (+105), and Twins vs. Yankees Under 8.5 runs (-102) due to strong starting pitching and bullpen matchups.
Value Bets - Athletics and Angels
From predictive models (Dimers), value bets with solid edges are Athletics +1.5 (-138) vs. Rays with a 60.8% win probability and Angels +1.5 (+110) vs. Dodgers with a 49.9% win probability.
Game Previews and Predictions
Additional game previews and predictions include political matchups like Pirates vs. Brewers, Rockies vs. Cardinals, Cubs vs. Blue Jays, and Red Sox vs. Astros focusing on moneylines, totals, and player props, recommended as straight bets with detailed analysis.
Video-Based Expert Advice
For video-based expert advice, Drew Martin’s “Daily Diamond” covers highlighted games such as Padres vs. Giants, Marlins vs. Guardians, providing insights and best bets for the day.
In other news, the Pirates' starting pitcher Paul Skenes is re-emphasizing his four-seamer while beginning to move away from his splitter. The Padres ML is projected at -106, and the total at 6.22. The Padres' offensive splits with both teams facing a southpaw, and their bullpen - ranked top-six since the deadline - are favourable.
The Angels' starting pitcher Tyler Anderson has overperformed this season, but his BABIP is still high, despite playing in front of a bad defensive team. Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios is on pace for some career-worst numbers. Cubs starter Ben Brown has a high ERA, and the game between Cubs and Blue Jays on Tuesday will likely have an open roof with 82-degree temperatures.
The renovation at the Rogers Centre has led to a drastic increase in Park Factors, and since making the change, Pirates pitcher Skenes has seen some of his metrics improve. Padres starting pitcher Nestor Cortes had a productive season in the Bronx but struggled in his last outing against his former team.
Both the Cubs and Blue Jays have top-three MLB lineups with low strikeout rates. Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta has solid metrics, but Giants starter Robbie Ray's advanced pitching models aren't as high on him. Roberto Ortiz is a pitcher-friendly plate boss, with a career record of 104-80-11 to the Under.
The Blue Jays have undergone a two-phase Rogers Centre renovation in 2023 and 2024, reducing foul territory and bringing the power alleys in. I project 10.15 runs for the game between Cubs and Blue Jays, and I also project the total at 9.5 runs for the game between Cubs and Blue Jays. He typically wears down as the season progresses, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a second-half dip in production from Ray.
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