Baseball Forecast for August 11: Insider Choices and Statistical Forecasts
Welcome to this week's edition of Opening Pitch, where we bring you the latest MLB predictions and expert picks to help you make informed decisions on your bets. Today, we're focusing on the Nationals vs. Royals and Pirates vs. Brewers games.
Nationals vs. Royals
The Nationals are currently underdogs, with a moneyline of approximately +125 to +130, while the Royals are favored at around -149 to -155. In the run line, the odds put the Royals at -1.5 runs with odds near +145 to +146, and the Nationals at +1.5 with odds near -175. The total runs line is set at 9, with odds roughly +100 for the over and about -120 for the under.
Starting for the Nationals is RHP Cade Cavalli, who had an impressive 2025 debut with 19 whiffs and elite stuff. His opponent, LHP Bailey Falter, has higher expected ERA metrics. Despite the Nationals' recent struggles against southpaws, expert Sean Zerillo favors the Nationals' moneyline at +130 (play to +123). However, a contrasting expert score prediction favors the Royals 5-4 with a 58% win probability versus 42% for the Nationals.
Pirates vs. Brewers
In the second game, the Pirates are underdogs, with moneyline odds around +165 to +180. The Brewers' odds were not detailed in the summaries, but expert previews and betting shows identified the Pirates moneyline as a key pick.
The Pirates have a better offensive split against a left-handed pitcher (103 wRC+ against the side over the past month). LHP Andrew Heaney (Pirates) and LHP Jose Quintana (Brewers) have similar underlying indicators and projections. The Pirates' bullpen has been top-six in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Outs Above Average (OAA), and top-five in xFIP and K-BB% over the past month.
Expert Sean Zerillo recommends the Pirates moneyline at +180 (play to +165). Additional expert analysis videos also focus on this matchup for strategic betting insights.
In brief, the Nationals vs. Royals game odds are roughly Nationals +125 to +130 and Royals around -150, with the Nationals moneyline favored by one expert for a bet play. The Pirates vs. Brewers game features the Pirates as underdogs at about +165 to +180 on the moneyline, with the expert leaning towards the Pirates ML.
Remember, these predictions are based on the available data and expert analysis as of August 11, 2025. For the latest MLB odds, visit the MLB Odds page. For more detailed projections for every MLB game on Monday, check out the Action App and the Projections Hub.
[1] Nationals vs. Royals Expert Analysis 1 [2] Nationals vs. Royals Expert Analysis 2 [3] Pirates vs. Brewers Expert Analysis 1 [4] Pirates vs. Brewers Expert Analysis 2
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