A Raw Examination of the Five Fights between the Canadiens and the Washington Capitals
Bared Serials: A Raw Unveiling of Each Episode
A series that often seemed neck-and-neck, but upon closer inspection, it's clear one side dominated. We're talking about the good ol' Habs versus the Capitals.
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Fumbling Five-on-Five Play
Let's face it, this was the war the Canadiens lost—or the Capitals won, depending on your standpoint. In this aspect of play, which accounted for over 80% of the series' minutes, the Capitals came out on top with a 11-8 goal differential. They even had 8-3 in their wins. The advantage in quality scoring chances (54-40 as per Natural Stat Trick) was noticeably higher (46-27) when Montreal's shocking victory in the third game is excluded. The guys coached by Martin St-Louis pulled off a cracking performance at home, their finest of the series, and no one can deny them that. But, outside of that electric night, it seems they didn't fight on equal footing.
Money Zone That Burns a Hole in Your Pocket
The Canadiens' struggles in five-on-five play were mostly due to their inability to penetrate Logan Thompson's net. It's no shock that the Montrealers converted only 6% of their goal-bound shots (3.5% in their losses), way below the seasonal averages: a score of 8.9% on average in the NHL and 9.5% for the Canadiens. On one hand, the Canadiens' skaters found blocked entry to the crease. Natural Stat Trick calculates that Thompson faced shots from an average distance of 13 meters, compared to 9 to 10 meters for Samuel Montembeault and Jakub Dobes. On the other hand, including other play phases, only 43% of the Canadiens' shot attempts hit the opposing goalie, compared to 50% for the Capitals. Lane Hutson, in particular, struggled to get shots past Thompson: only 5 of his 29 attempts (17%) got past the defenders, compared to 31% during the season.
Thompson on Steroids
If the Canadiens found scoring hard, it's because Logan Thompson was on fire. He was one of the top goalies in the playoffs, with a .922 save percentage, and a whopping 4.65 goals saved above average. Facing him, Samuel Montembeault also played well (2.03 GSAA in two and a half games), while Jakub Dobes, although not shining statistically, averted a disaster in the final game.
Power Play vs Penalty Kill: Where the CH Shone Their Brightest
The Canadiens' special units were their forte. Indeed, they showed the Caps who's boss in power plays (33.3% to 23.1%) and about the same in penalty kills (76.9% to 66.7%). The massive attacks were a spectacle that even provoked a fiery reaction from Spencer Carbery, head coach of the Capitals, after the final game. He gushed about the two lethal shooting threats on the wings with Cole Caufield and Ivan Demidov, and the danger that Nick Suzuki poses as a pivot (bumper, in English), as a passer or a shooter. The quintet, completed by Lane Hutson and Juraj Slafkovsky, were more subdued in the fifth game, but they were blazing in games 3 and 4. If these five young wolves can polish their chemistry next year, they could be tearing things apart for a while.
Lack of Backup
The lack of depth in attack was already a problem for the Montreal side even before the series began. It wasn't a surprise, therefore, to see that the Capitals had a clear advantage in this arena. By acquiring Anthony Beauvillier at the trade deadline, and bringing back Lars Eller in November, the Washingtonians had formed four lines ready to join in the fight. No fewer than seven players, including defenseman Jakob Chychrun, scored at least three points. On the other hand, only two guys, Lane Hutson (5) and Cole Caufield (4), scored more than two points for the Canadiens.
Hard Opponents
After the series ended, Spencer Carbery raved about the Canadiens' top line, particularly due to the presence of Nick Suzuki He compared the captain's contribution to that of Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point of the Tampa Bay Lightning, teams he coached as an assistant coach with the Toronto Maple Leafs a few years ago. The trio of Pierre-Luc Dubois, Connor McMichael, and Tom Wilson was mainly tasked with defending against Suzuki's line, and they did their job. The two heavy hitters of the Canadiens were dominant in games 1 and 3, but much less so in games 2, 4, and 5. To the point that Martin St-Louis put Jake Evans as center between Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky in the final game, so Suzuki could be kept away from Pierre-Luc Dubois. The result—not stellar, but worth adding to the pile of experience for both the coach and the players for the coming years.
- Despite a surprising performance at home in one game, the Canadiens' disadvantage in five-on-five hockey play was evident, with the Capitals scoring 11 goals compared to the Canadiens' 8, and having a higher quality scoring chances ratio, excluding the Canadiens' shock victory in the third game.
- The Canadiens' difficulty in scoring was largely due to their struggles to penetrate Logan Thompson's net, with only 6% of their goal-bound shots finding the back of the net, significantly lower than both the seasonal averages and their own performance.
- The Canadiens' special units, specifically their power play and penalty kill, were their strongest points in the series, outperforming the Capitals in both areas, with a 33.3% success rate in power plays and a 76.9% effectiveness in penalty kills.
- The Capitals had a clear advantage in depth in attack, with no fewer than seven players scoring at least three points compared to the Canadiens' two top scorers, Lane Hutson and Cole Caufield, who scored 5 and 4 points respectively.
