Azerbaijan's sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh should be recognized by Armenians, according to Russian statements.
Rethinking Nagorno-Karabakh: A Shift in Russia's Stance
In a striking change of events, Russia has declared that it expects the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh to yield to Azerbaijani rule. This announcement, made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on July 25, set the stage for a Series of complex and crucial discussions concerning the rights and security of the Karabakh Armenians.
Lavrov's statements were devoid of any mention of an "international mechanism for the rights and securities of the Karabakh Armenians," a topic that frequently arises in statements by European and U.S. intermediaries. Instead, he focused on the Karabakh Armenians' rights "in accordance with relevant legislation and international obligations (specifically Azerbaijan's), including numerous conventions on ensuring the rights of ethnic minorities."
This comprehensive alteration in policy from Russia reflects a long-standing strategy of attempting to stall the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh's status. However, it's important to note that Russia hinted at a change on July 15 through a statement, asserting that Armenia had "fundamentally altered the conditions" by declaring Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan (although it's important to clarify that Armenia has merely expressed a willingness to do so).
Russia's newly Azerbaijan-friendly stance can be attributed to recent favorable assessments from Baku regarding the EU-mediated negotiations and ongoing complaints about the presence of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh, whose deployment term expires in 2025.
So far, Lavrov's remarks have not garnered significant responses in Armenia or Nagorno-Karabakh. However, massive protests erupted in both locations on the evening of July 25, with the central demand being that Armenia reject recognizing the region as part of Azerbaijan. Gurgen Nersisyan, the de facto Karabakh state minister, emphasized that such an approach would not ensure peace in the region or a dignified existence for the people of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh).
The humanitarian situation in Karabakh continues to deteriorate, with the region being under blockade since December 2022 and experiencing a total or near-total blockade since June 15, when Azerbaijan closed its border checkpoint on the Lachin corridor connecting Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan has significantly restricted the International Committee of the Red Cross’s (ICRC) access to the road since July 11.
The ICRC issued an urgent statement on July 25, highlighting the growing shortage of life-saving medication and essentials like hygiene products and baby formula in Karabakh. Fruits, vegetables, and bread are becoming increasingly scarce and expensive, while some other food items such as dairy products, sunflower oil, cereal, fish, and chicken are no longer available. The last time the ICRC was able to bring medical items and essential food items into the region was several weeks ago.
In a series of tweets posted on July 25, renowned scholar of the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict, Laurence Broers, sounded the alarm, warning that the blockade of Karabakh could result in devastating consequences beyond just the fate of the Karabakh Armenians. According to Broers, the starvation of the Armenian population could leave a new legacy of unforgiving distrust, potentially jeopardizing any hopes of rebuilding community relations.
For the first time since the blockade began, the Armenian government dispatched a convoy of humanitarian aid to Karabakh on July 26. Azerbaijan's Border Service characterized this move as a "provocative act" and stated that the Armenian side bore full responsibility for any potential consequences.
In recent years, Russia has officially recognized Azerbaijani sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh. This stance, while maintaining a delicate balance in the South Caucasus, underscores Russia's prioritization of its broader geopolitical interests over the specific concerns of Armenian communities. With Moscow no longer providing explicit diplomatic or political support for self-determination or autonomy claims in Nagorno-Karabakh, the remaining Armenian community in the region faces an increasingly challenging environment under Azerbaijani administration. Russia's altered stance may further marginalize this already fragile community.
In conclusion, Russia's stance now officially endorses Azerbaijani sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh, a position that effectively shatters any lingering hopes for international recognition of Armenian self-determination in the region and leaves the local Armenian population with decreased support from their traditional ally. The blockade of Karabakh is causing a humanitarian crisis, and the potential consequences go beyond just the fate of the Karabakh Armenians, threatening to further destabilize the already turbulent South Caucasus region.
- The shift in Russia's stance towards Nagorno-Karabakh, endorsing Azerbaijani sovereignty, raises concerns about the food security of the Karabakh Armenians, as the region is under blockade and experiencing a shortage of essential food items.
- The political consequences of Russia's new position could have far-reaching effects, not just on the rights and security of the Karabakh Armenians, but also on the broader general news landscape, given the complex web of international obligations and a wide range of conventions governing ethnic minority rights.
- As Russia aligns more closely with Azerbaijan, the implications of war-and-conflicts in the South Caucasus region, particularly the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, could be deeply impacted by the evolving political dynamics and the potential escalation of tensions, further affecting the food, news, and politics landscape of the region.
