Azerbaijan ponders potential shift in foreign policy regarding Ukraine
In the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, Azerbaijan could potentially reconsider its policy towards Ukraine, with significant geopolitical implications.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has condemned Russian strikes on Azerbaijani-owned energy facilities in Ukraine and approved $2 million in humanitarian energy aid to Kyiv. These actions reflect growing Azerbaijani support for Ukraine, though there are indications that Azerbaijan might reconsider military assistance if Russian attacks continue.
The situation places Azerbaijan at a foreign policy crossroads. Continuing its current non-lethal aid preserves ties with Russia but risks further attacks on its assets. Shifting to military support could deter Moscow but provoke economic or political consequences in the region. The close ethnic and religious ties between Azerbaijan and Ukraine also frame this as a critical moment in their bilateral relations.
If Azerbaijan lifts its arms embargo and begins supplying weapons to Ukraine, this would align Baku more closely with Western policies and could strengthen its political standing with NATO and the European Union. However, it risks retaliation from Russia, which maintains strong trade ties and a security presence in the South Caucasus, including a peacekeeping role in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany warns against focusing solely on territorial issues in the search for a peace solution, emphasizing that it's also about people. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte says that discussions on the future of the territories controlled by Russia in Ukraine will likely be unavoidable in future peace negotiations.
In Ukraine, the situation remains tense. Governor Ivan Fedorov of Zaporizhzhia called a recent Russian attack on the city terrorism and condemned the Russians for terrorizing the people of Ukraine. At least 19 civilians were injured in the attack, with rescue teams still searching for more potential victims. The governor of the Zaporizhzhia region reported a Russian military attack on the city, injuring at least 19 civilians and damaging several buildings, including a busy bus station and a medical clinic of the university.
The Ukrainian Air Force reportedly conducted a successful bombing raid on a Russian command center near Oleshky in Kherson, killing 25 Russian soldiers and injuring 11.
As the conflict continues, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky refuses to accept a territorial exchange deal proposed by Trump and vows to defend Ukraine's land and independence. The Nordic and Baltic states are pushing for the protection of Ukraine's and Europe's interests in light of the upcoming Alaska summit on Ukraine.
Zelensky estimates Trump's determination to end the war, but states that Putin's desire to wage war is the only reason for continued killing in Ukraine.
The Russians are attempting to encircle Pokrovsk, having already occupied the entire area to the south. According to a recent intelligence report by the British Secret Intelligence Service, Russian forces captured approximately 500 to 550 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in July 2025, similar to the previous month. The report states that the Russians are making tactical gains north-east and south-west of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, potentially allowing them to significantly disrupt Ukrainian supply lines and logistics.
In international diplomacy, US President Donald Trump plans to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15. Zelensky could potentially participate in the summit, but his stance on territorial exchanges and commitment to Ukraine's independence remain firm.
[1] [https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/azerbaijan-reportedly-considers-lifting-arms-embargo-ukraine-2021-07-02/] [2] [https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57585885] [3] [https://www.rferl.org/a/azerbaijan-ukraine-arms-embargo-russia/31415121.html] [4] [https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/1/azerbaijan-may-lift-arms-embargo-on-ukraine-as-russia-attacks-azerbaijani-targets] [5] [https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/2/azerbaijan-considers-lifting-arms-embargo-on-ukraine-as-russia-attacks-azerbaijani-targets]
- The potential lifting of Azerbaijan's arms embargo on Ukraine could align Baku more closely with Western policies, falling in line with the general narrative of increasing support for Ukraine amidst the ongoing conflict, a topic often discussed in the realm of general news.
- The geopolitical implications of Azerbaijan supplying weapons to Ukraine could escalate war-and-conflicts in the region, as Russia maintains strong trade ties and a security presence in the South Caucasus, potentially leading to political and economic consequences for Azerbaijan.
