Authorities under Lukashenko issue alert on the formation of a "significant" Polish faction
The joint military exercises between Russia and Belarus, known as Zapad-2025, are set to take place from September 12 to 16, 2025. These exercises, held every two years alternately on the territory of both countries, are a significant part of the regular alternating schedule for the joint exercises between the armies of Russia and Belarus.
The size of the proposed Polish military group, according to Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin, is significant, and he has expressed concern over Poland's decision to create a military group of 30-34 thousand personnel. Khrenin has stated that Belarus needs to watch this development closely and has hinted at a potential response from Belarus if Poland shows aggression, although the exact nature of the response is not specified.
The Zapad-2025 exercises are said to test the defensive readiness of the Union State (Russia-Belarus alliance), with the main maneuvers being moved away from the western borders into the depths of the republic to reduce tension in the region. However, NATO and EU analysts are highly concerned. The drills involve about 13,000 personnel and include nuclear-capable missile system training, raising fears that they might serve as cover for military escalation against NATO’s eastern flank, especially Poland and the Baltic states.
Regarding Poland’s creation of a new military group, Belarus has indicated a right to deploy forces near its borders, framing NATO exercises as provocations and justifying its own military posture as defensive. NATO interprets these Belarusian military moves in the context of past Zapad exercises being preludes to aggression—in particular, the 2021 Zapad exercise which preceded Russia's invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory. There is significant worry that Belarus, aligned closely with Russia, could facilitate or participate in military actions threatening Poland and Lithuania, including threats to the vulnerable Suwałki Corridor, considered NATO’s critical land link to the Baltics.
Invitations to participate in separate stages of the exercises have been sent to other countries and international organizations, including the CSTO, CIS, and SCO. However, no specific information is provided about the participation of these entities in the exercises. The Russian-Belarus exercises are being used by NATO countries as a pretext for their own exercises, according to Viktor Khrenin, the Belarusian Defense Minister, who made these comments to journalists.
The first echelon of Russian military personnel and equipment has already arrived in Belarus for the joint exercises. The exact nature of NATO's response to Zapad-2025 is not specified in the article. Nevertheless, NATO states view Belarus's response and the Zapad-2025 exercises as part of a coordinated military posture with Russia that heightens security risks in Eastern Europe, justifying NATO's increased vigilance and defensive preparations.
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