Authorities investigating organization's alleged illegal activities, with insider reporting potential violation of privacy laws
Redirecting Directions: A New Perspective on European Security
It's a controversial opinion, but noted scholar Ilja Budraitskis suggests that there are two driving forces behind the current conflict: the power struggle among military alliances and Putin's self-proclaimed imperial ambitions. The West may not have much influence on the latter.
However, many experts contend that Western governments share significant responsibility for the current state of affairs. US diplomat George Kennan had predicted this in the late '90s, asserting that NATO expansion would strengthen Russia's military forces, hinder democratization, and incite a confrontational foreign policy from Moscow. Post the fall of the Soviet Union, serious efforts to establish a peace order under the OSCE umbrella were halted due to a decision by the Bush administration, which saw close European-Russian cooperation as a threat. If a functional peace architecture had been implemented, the need for NATO may not have arisen. The US has been systematically weakening the OSCE since 1995.
Andreas Zumach, a seasoned diplomat and international relations expert, is a co-author of the strategy paper "Rethinking Security. Europe's Role for World Peace". Recent events suggest that the US itself is looking to dissolve NATO. The debate about managing the challenge of a declining US and rising China has been ongoing in the US since the Obama administration. Both Trump and Biden have sharpened the economic conflict, and the new Trump administration now believes that Russia has been drawn closer to China, bolstering it.
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The paper "Rethinking Security" argues that Europe requires a new security policy, one that breaks away from the conventional wisdom. The misconceptions about Russia are alarming. Without the US, European military spending dwarfs Russia's by a wide margin. Europe also boasts superiority in conventional weapon systems. The only area of deficit is in nuclear weapons. If a military approach is favored, France and Britain's nuclear weapons would suffice as deterrents. The fear-mongering over armament that saturates the public discourse is unwarranted and detrimental. If these plans materialize, any investment in social and climate policies, or alleviating global poverty, would be jeopardized. It is crucial to counter this dangerous narrative. Putin seeks to maintain control over Crimea, the Donbass, and the Azov Sea, which is already problematic enough. The notion that he could seize all of Ukraine, invade Poland or Germany is absurd.
In the paper, the authors discuss a "civilian geostrategy" for the EU. A more suitable term could be "political sovereignty." The EU could have pursued this path decades ago, such as by actively mediating in conflicts like the Middle East and the water dispute between India and China. However, the possibility evaporated when Germany sent warships through the Taiwan Strait to make a statement to the Chinese. The EU can only survive as a state union if it acts as a civilian heavyweight on the global stage, avoiding militaristic posturing. Otherwise, it risks collapse.
"European sovereignty" should not be equated with the creation of a European army. The only military instrument for pacifying violent conflicts are UN-mandated peacekeeping missions. Debates about European military intervention in Ukraine are misguided. If peace is to be restored in Ukraine, it can only be achieved through a UN-mandated peacekeeping force with significant contingents from the Global South.
The authors advocate for the reinforcement of multilateral organizations like the OSCE. However, international law and cooperation are losing favor, even among EU states that disregard international arrest warrants, such as for Netanyahu. International law, established in 1945 following humanity's deepest civilizational collapse, is crucial to prevent a slide into a global conflict between the US and China. This can only be achieved with robust engagement from civil societies worldwide, including maintaining dialogue with Russia.
- The debate about managing global challenges, such as a declining US and rising China, has been ongoing in politics for quite some time, and it is crucial to counter the dangerous narrative that promotes increased military spending for Europe, as it may jeopardize investments in social and climate policies and alleviating global poverty.
- In the realm of policy and legislation, it is essential to reinforce multilateral organizations like the OSCE, uphold international law, and maintain dialogue with Russia, as international cooperation is losing favor and disregard for international law could lead to a slide into a global conflict between major powers, such as the US and China.
