Austria's ÖVP Suffers Major Defeat Primarily at Hands of FPÖ
Vienna's Political Shake-Up: The Surprising Switch from Blues to Brown
The recent municipal council elections in Vienna witnessed a significant shift towards the Freedom Party of Austria (FPO), primarily at the expense of the Austrian People's Party (ÖVP). This analysis stems from the voter flow study conducted by the Foresight Institute for APA and ORF.
To put it simply, a staggering 63% of ÖVP voters from the 2020 elections did not vote for the Turkish-Black party this time but chose other options, with 27% opting for the FPO, 16% for the Socialist Party (SPO), and 12% for NEOS. Only 4% of ÖVP voters decided to sit out the election this time around.
A Blue Wave for FPO
scrutinizing the numbers reveals that out of the 148,000 ÖVP voters in 2020, a considerable 40,000 chose the FPO in the 2022 elections, while the SPO managed to absorb 24,000 votes. The NEOS gained 18,000 votes.
On the flip side, the SPO retained an impressive 71% (216,000) of its 2020 voters. The party lost approximately 36,000 votes to the FPO, equivalent to the number lost by the ÖVP but a much lower percentage (12%) due to the higher total number of voters.
The populist slogan of the KPO ("Ludwig will win anyway") during their election campaign was ineffective, as the Reds lost voters mainly to themselves (29%) and the Greens (29%). A smaller portion went to the SPO (11%), others (11%), and non-voters (8%).
The Strache team, formed by the former FPO vice-chancellor, was predominantly absorbed by the FPO. A majority 54% of the HC Strache voters from 2020 opted for the Blues this time. Only 18% voted for Strache's new list again, or abstained from voting.
The shift from ÖVP to FPO can be linked to long-term political trends and specific policy disagreements, though exact migration patterns remain unclear. Factors such as the ÖVP's declining support, the FPO's far-right appeal, discontent with coalition dynamics, and Strache's lingering influence may have contributed to the trend. It's also worth noting that the FPO's anti-immigration stance and Eurosceptic positions might have resonated with voters concerned about migration and national sovereignty.
- The Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) experienced a notable surge in support during the recent Vienna municipal council elections, absorbing a considerable percentage of votes from the Austrian People's Party (ÖVP).
- Out of the 148,000 ÖVP voters in 2020, approximately 40,000 chose the FPO in the 2022 elections, clearly demonstrating a significant shift away from the Blues and towards the Browns.
- Politics and policy-and-legislation debates, as well as long-term political trends, could be contributing factors to the shift from ÖVP to FPO, including dissatisfaction with coalition dynamics, disapproval of the ÖVP's policies, and the appeal of the FPO's far-right stance on issues such as immigration and national sovereignty.
- The SPO was able to retain a substantial portion of its 2020 voters, losing fewer votes to the FPO compared to the ÖVP, signifying a more cohesive electorate and potentially less dissatisfaction with the Socialist Party's policies.
