Austrian Radical Shift Approaches: Kickl's Power Seizure Nears
In the wake of Austria's recent parliamentary elections, concerns have arisen over the potential transformation of the nation's democracy. Herbert Kickl, the radical leader of the ultra-right Freedom Party (FPO), is edging closer to becoming Austria's Chancellor, following its significant electoral triumph, with approximately 29% of the vote.
Traditional parties, including the People's Party, Social Democrats, and Liberals, had initially pursued coalition talks. However, these negotiations disintegrated over disagreements regarding fiscal policy and political ideology, paving the way for a potential alliance between the FPO and the People's Party.
The failure of the former Democratic alliance—marked by a combination of misfortune and recklessness—has raised worries that Austria may follow in the footsteps of countries governed by authoritarian, radical figures, such as Hungary, Slovakia, Italy under Giorgia Meloni, and the United States under the latest Trump administration. Although the precise trajectory is uncertain, it seems likely that Austria will find itself in a political landscape that is at least moderately more right-wing.
Kickl, who leads the FPO, is more than a populist striving to win votes within liberal democratic confines. He is a committed far-right ideologue seeking to reshape Austria's political landscape. In its platform, the FPO has pledged to "homogenise the population," and Kickl has openly called for emulating the example of Viktor Orban. He has also been vocal in his support of anti-vaccination movements and has shown unwavering loyalty to Vladimir Putin. The FPO has welcomingly opened its doors to the far-right Identitarians, a fascist street movement. During the election campaign, Kickl stated that he already had "wanted lists."
Despite holding only 29% of the vote, the FPO will need to forge an alliance with the conservative People's Party, which itself has increasingly adopted right-wing populist positions. Both parties have long competed to seal Austria's borders most decisively and exhibit growing hostility towards a free press and what they criticize as "woke decadence." However, as Austria's traditional governing party, the People's Party is unlikely to dismantle the institutional foundations of the republic.
The FPO, despite its extreme beginnings and controversial history, has primarily sought to become part of the very "system" it claims to oppose. It has been a junior partner in coalition governments with the People's Party, sits in five provincial governments, and counts many local and regional politicians who are not radical zealots within its ranks. On the one hand, it exploits latent and overt public discontent, stirring anger and division; on the other, it has grown accustomed to occupying a normal place in Austria's political life.
As Austria moves forward, the opposition and democratic civil society must prepare themselves and defend liberal democracy with resolute determination and strategic acumen. The government may seek to discredit opposition figures, suppress dissent, and undermine the strength of the Social Democrats, the left-leaning city of Vienna, trade unions, and progressive organizations and NGOs. A wave of illiberalism could sweep over the country, particularly if key media outlets comply—a troubling scenario that is unfortunately more likely than not.
The potential consequences of the FPO's rise include a sharp rise in populism and anti-immigration sentiment, challenges in coalition building, and the impact on EU policies. The FPO's stance on immigration could lead to increased polarization, potentially affecting EU asylum policies and relations with other member states. Its strict immigration policies might mirror those of countries like Hungary under Orban. Moreover, its influence could lead to significant changes in Austria's economic landscape, potentially affecting social welfare programs and foreign investment. These alterations could be similar to those observed in other populist governments, such as Poland and Italy.
While there is a risk of Austrian democracy drifting towards authoritarianism, it is crucial to remember that the FPO, despite its radical leadership and extremist tendencies, has a significant minority of supporters and will have to collaborate with the moderate mainstream People's Party. As Austria navigates these turbulent political waters, it is essential to maintain a vigilant watch over the evolution of its democracy while preserving and, where necessary, reaffirming the core principles of liberal democracy.
- The opposition and democratic civil society in Austria must brace themselves for potential challenges ahead, as the government may seek to discredit opposition figures, suppress dissent, and undermine the strength of social democrats, city of Vienna, trade unions, and progressive organizations and NGOs.
- The rise of the Freedom Party (FPO) in Austria's political landscape could lead to a significant increase in populism and anti-immigration sentiment, potentially affecting EU asylum policies and relations with other member states. This shift could mirror the immigration policies of countries like Hungary under Orban.
- As Austria moves forward, it is essential to maintain a vigilant watch over its democracy, while preserving and reaffirming the core principles of liberal democracy. This involves monitoring the FPO's influence on policy-and-legislation, particularly in areas such as social welfare programs and foreign investment, which could undergo significant changes under a more right-wing political landscape.
