Australia's turbulent flu season this winter could pose challenges for the upcoming winter in the United States. Given the ongoing COVID-19 situation, it's worth considering how Australia's severe flu season, which usually runs from April to October, might influence the Northern Hemisphere, including the US winter months.
In 2022, Australia battled one of its worst flu seasons in five years. According to official reports, the number of reported cases nearly tripled compared to the average in the same period, peaking prematurely around two months ahead of schedule. New Zealand also recorded higher-than-usual rates of flu-like illnesses this year compared to the previous two years.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, advised against dismissing these developments. Speaking to Bloomberg News, he warned, "The flu season in the Southern Hemisphere is significant and is occurring early. We've learned over many years that the flu can be quite severe, especially when the season is rough."
Fauci highlighted the risk of a flu resurgence in the US as COVID-19 intensity persists. Based on current models, COVID-19 is expected to reach its peak again by early December, marking the first winter with simultaneous transmission of both respiratory viruses. Since the pandemic's onset, public health experts have warned about this scenario.
The flu's absence during the pandemic's initial stages, when stringent measures like quarantines, social distancing, and mask-wearing were enforced, may explain its temporary decline. However, as normal activities resumed, flu cases slowly inclined, without yet achieving pre-pandemic levels.
Jennifer Nayak, a pediatric infectious diseases specialist at the University of Rochester Medical Center, pointed out that several factors could contribute to a potential flu outbreak this year: decreased immunity due to mild flu seasons and the relaxation of public health measures. With vaccination rates having dropped in certain high-risk groups and mask-wearing becoming less common, the likelihood of a severe flu season is somewhat higher.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), around 50% of Americans did not receive a flu vaccine during the previous season. To mitigate this and prepare for potential simultaneous transmission of both viruses, the US government plans to launch a campaign this fall encouraging both flu vaccination and COVID-19 boosters. However, whether these messages resonate with a pandemic-weary populace remains to be seen.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding a harsh flu season in the US, healthcare facilities, still grappling with COVID-19, may need to prepare for dual respiratory virus outbreaks. Seasonal flu outbreaks represent a significant burden on society, and health experts emphasize the importance of minimizing this burden.
While the 2022 Australian flu season's direct impact on the US remains unclear, the lessons learned from Australia's public health strategies, vaccination effectiveness, and community transmission dynamics can inform and bolster the US's readiness for the upcoming flu season. This includes considering vaccine effectiveness, embracing robust public health measures, and prioritizing the protection of vulnerable populations.
