Atlantic's Tropical Storm Gabrielle emerges, may intensify more, according to National Hurricane Center's forecast
In the heart of September, Tropical Storm Gabrielle has made its appearance in the Central Atlantic, as confirmed by the National Hurricane Center on Wednesday. Currently, the storm is located 1,085 miles east of the Leeward Islands, bringing winds up to 45 mph.
The storm, previously a tropical depression, does not currently pose a threat to the United States. However, it is predicted to affect the northern Leeward Islands region in the coming weeks. As of now, Gabrielle is moving northwest, a trajectory that is likely to keep it out to sea, thanks to a strong area of high pressure.
This development marks the end of a notably quiet period in the Atlantic Basin. Historically, about two-thirds of all Atlantic hurricane season activity occurs between Aug. 20 and Oct. 10. Last year demonstrated that late September and early October can be an active period for tropical development, with multiple high-impact and potentially devastating threats.
Tropical weather experts at Colorado State University (CSU) echo these predictions, stating that overall atmospheric conditions will shift to support increased activity. In August, NOAA predicted above-normal activity for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season. David Zierden, the Florida state climatologist and head of the Florida Climate Center at Florida State University, shares this sentiment, predicting that the remainder of September and October will likely be active.
The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season has passed, but approximately 60% of tropical activity typically occurs after Sept. 10, on average. This is due in part to the fact that September and October often see some of the busiest activity for hurricanes because sea surface temperatures can be at their highest. Higher temperatures provide 'ample fuel' for the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones, according to Jennifer Francis, an atmospheric scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center.
If it develops further, the storm could be a hurricane in the vicinity of Bermuda. However, the National Hurricane Center predicts that the storm will remain over open waters for several days, and it is likely to remain a tropical storm, but could strengthen into a hurricane by early next week. The Center also predicts that overall tropical activity will increase in the second half of September.
Despite the storm's current trajectory, residents of the northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda are encouraged to stay informed and prepared. The waters in the Gulf and Caribbean are currently 'very warm,' creating favorable conditions for further tropical development. As always, safety remains the top priority during hurricane season.
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