Atlantic's Tropical Storm Erin finds genesis, anticipated to escalate into the initial hurricane of the year
The Atlantic hurricane season, which typically reaches its busiest period between mid-August and mid-October, is expected to remain active despite a relatively quiet start in 2025. So far, five named tropical storms have formed, but no hurricanes have been recorded yet.
A lull is typical early in the season, with the first hurricane forming by August 11, on average. However, in recent years, hurricanes have roared to life much earlier in the season.
One of the current tropical storms, Erin, is expected to become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season this week. Erin is located west of Africa's Cabo Verde islands and has sustained winds of 45 mph. The National Hurricane Center predicts that Erin will gradually strengthen in the coming days and could become a hurricane as soon as Wednesday evening.
Another tropical storm, Ernesto, is also expected to form soon. The National Hurricane Center is also pinpointing two other areas for potential tropical development this week.
Sea surface temperatures in the western Atlantic are much warmer than normal, which could contribute to the formation and intensification of storms. While sea surface temperatures are not as warm as the record levels reached in 2023 and 2024, they are still warmer than they would be in a world that isn't heating up due to fossil fuel pollution.
Forecasters expect above-average tropical activity this year, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) revising the 2025 forecast in August to expect 13 to 18 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes, and 2 to 5 major hurricanes. This takes into account the subdued start but anticipates increased activity in the coming months.
The busiest stretch of the Atlantic hurricane season typically spans from mid-August to mid-October, which usually sees the most frequent and intense storm formation. Activity during these weeks often includes multiple hurricanes and major hurricanes. Heightened vigilance is expected as those weeks unfold.
It is important to note that even a relatively quiet start to the season can quickly change, as seen in previous years. Residents in coastal areas are encouraged to stay informed and prepare for potential storms by having an emergency plan in place and gathering necessary supplies.
References:
- NOAA Hurricane Research Division
- National Hurricane Center
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center
- Insurance Journal
- CNN
Forecasters attribute the potential increase in storm activity to warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the western Atlantic, a phenomenon that could be influenced by climate change. Regarding the environmental science behind this, the continued heating up of the planet due to fossil fuel pollution may contribute to the above-average tropical activity expected this season.
