Atlantic's initial hurricane of the year, Tropical Storm Erin, projected to intensify further
The Atlantic hurricane season is gearing up for a busy and above-average period, with Tropical Storm Erin poised to become the first major hurricane of the season.
Currently located hundreds of miles west of Africa's Cabo Verde islands, Erin is moving westward through the main development region, which stretches from Africa's west coast to the Caribbean. It is expected to take much of the week for Erin to make its way into the western Atlantic.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is keeping a close eye on Erin, as it has the potential to become the season's first hurricane, possibly even a major one, given the warm ocean conditions and favorable atmospheric factors.
The NHC has also pinpointed two other areas for potential tropical development this week in the Atlantic. This heightened activity fits within the expected pattern of a busy hurricane season, which enters its typically busiest weeks as Tropical Storm Erin moves westward.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be above average in activity, with forecasts calling for 13 to 18 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes, and 2 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
Key factors supporting this forecast include NOAA’s updated outlook as of early August 2025, which indicates a 50% chance of above-normal hurricane activity. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic basin are significantly warmer than average, particularly in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and main development region, providing abundant energy for tropical storm formation and intensification.
The season has already produced four named storms, and Erin is poised to be the first hurricane. August is the usual period when the tropics come alive, with the busiest stretch of the season typically spanning from mid-August to mid-October.
Historically, the first hurricane forms by August 11, but a lull is typical early in the season. However, hurricanes have roared to life much earlier in recent years. Erin is the fifth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic season.
Forecasters expect above-average tropical activity this year, and more storms could form in the coming weeks. Forecasts show Erin taking a track north of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend.
This story has been updated with additional information.
[1] NOAA's Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for 2025 [2] National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook [3] Colorado State University Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast for 2025 [4] National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies [5] Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Outlooks for the Atlantic Basin
- The heightened activity during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, including Tropical Storm Erin's potential development into a major hurricane, is a significant concern for environmental-science researchers who study weather and weather-forecasting, as climate-change escalation could exacerbate such weather phenomena.
- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring the Atlantic basin this season, as the warm ocean conditions and favorable atmospheric factors outlined in NOAA's updated outlook for 2025 predict an above-average hurricane season, with potentially 13 to 18 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes, and 2 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
