At a 35% vote share for the Alternative for Germany (AfD), the Union might find itself in a position where it's outranked as a leading partner.

"Crunch Time for Coalition Parties" Guttenberg Predicts AfD's Potential Dominance in 2029 Federal Election

At a 35% vote share for the Alternative for Germany (AfD), the Union might find itself in a position where it's outranked as a leading partner.

Former Minister Guttenberg possibley sees a partnership between the Union parties and the Alternative for Germany in 2029, should the latter gain a substantial share of votes, he stated in an interview with Spiegel.

Guttenberg, a CSU politician, is uncertain about the potential outcome, but warns, "I wouldn't rule out the possibility of the CDU/CSU becoming the junior partner if the AfD secures 35% of votes in 2029 - a worrying prospect that we must work to prevent."

Based on recent polls, the Union and the AfD are currently neck-and-neck, each attaining 25% support. The SPD lags behind with 15%, followed by the Greens (12%) and Die Linke (10%). The FDP and BSW hover at a negligible 3% each.

Background Check: 2029 German Federal Election Forecast

Barring a significant shift in public opinion, the Union and the AfD could emerge as the largest blocs in the next federal election, with the CDU/CSU holding an estimated 186 seats, while the AfD could take 177.[*]

• Polling % (May 2025):
• CDU/CSU: 25.7 (-3.8)
• AfD: 24.5
• SPD: 15.4 (-)
• Greens: 11.6 (-)
• Die Linke: 10.0 (+4.8)
• Estimated Seats (Bundestag):
• CDU/CSU: 186
• AfD: 177

This forecast indicates that the AfD's growing popularity has the potential to change the political landscape significantly. If the union cannot regain public trust by addressing substantial issues, this trend could further solidify the AfD's position.[^1]

Guttenberg Reflects on Conscription

Regarding the question of reintroducing conscription, Guttenberg responded positively, provided the government is forthright with the public about it: "Yes, if we can be honest with the population." In his opinion, the decision to suspend conscription under his watch should have been reconsidered during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[^2]

In hindsight, Guttenberg admits that he would have preferred to maintain conscription, especially with a dedicated 100-billion Euro fund.

[^1]: Source: Der Spiegel [!*]: Data refers to latest polling trends and subject to change as the 2029 election approaches.

1. In an interview with Spiegel, former Minister Guttenberg suggested a potential coalition between the Union parties and the Alternative for Germany in the 2029 federal election, if the AfD secures a substantial vote share.
2. Guttenberg, a CSU politician, believes that the CDU/CSU might become the junior partner if the AfD secures 35% of votes in 2029, a scenario he warns could be worrying and needs to be prevented.
3. The latest polling data indicates a close race between the Union and the AfD, each gaining 25% support, while the SPD lags behind with 15%, followed by the Greens (12%) and Die Linke (10%).
4. The repercussions of the AfD's growing popularity could significantly change the political landscape, as the forecast predicts the Union and the AfD could emerge as the largest blocs in the next federal election.
5. Reflecting on conscription, Guttenberg believes that the government should be honest with the population if it intends to reintroduce conscription, and he thinks the decision to suspend conscription during his tenure should have been reconsidered during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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