Unleashing the Israel Air Force: Israel's Capabilities to Strike Iran's Nuclear Facilities, Focusing on the Fordo Uranium Enrichment Plant
Assessment of Israel's potential capabilities in striking Iran's nuclear plant
The most recent episode of Israeli airstrikes targeted the Fordo nuclear complex near Qom, Iran. Even though a minor seismic event of 2.5 magnitude was recorded, official confirmations have yet to surface. Hat tip to Gazeta.Ru and retired Colonel Mikhail Hadorenko, who delve into Israel's potential moves to annihilate Iran's nuclear infrastructure and scrutinize the protection of the secretive Fordo complex nestled within Qom's mountain ranges and the nearby Hovz salt lake.
Israel launched Operation "Lion of the People," a full-scale campaign dedicated to the destruction of Iran's nuclear and rocket facilities. At the operation's inception, Israeli air forces managed to cripple Iran's air defense network, granting them unhindered access to Iranian airspace.
Buried deep underground, several Iranian military objectives, including nuclear ones, provide a formidable challenge. Israel's weaponry incorporates specialized ammunition that pierces the ground and demolishes their targets. It is claimed that this tactic was employed to dismantle the Natanz center's underground vaults.
However, the Fordo uranium enrichment plant poses a more intricate problem. The complex is camouflaged on maps and fortified with defensive barriers and guard posts. Its production hall equipped with centrifuges is securely concealed beneath a thick layer of rock and reinforced concrete, making it resilient against air attacks.
Eliminating the Fordo plant is vital to achieving success. There are several routes to this end. One option is to inflict heavy bombardment, utilizing precision-guided munitions. Israel's 2.7-ton GBU-72 bombs can cause extensive craters, capable of destroying the surrounding rock.
An alternative choice is a commando raid, inspired by the successful heist on Hezbollah's arms factory in Syria in 2024, as suggested in Western press reports.
Colonel Hadorenko speculates that Israel's air forces will initially sever the battlefield by obliterating bridges and patrolling the complex's perimeter. Following this, commandos will be parachuted near the objective.
Also, check out the video of Iran's long-range drone-suicide attack against Israel. Some interesting discussions can be found on VKontakte, Classmates, Telegram, Viber, WhatsApp. Don't forget to share the link!
Background
To grasp Israel's suspected strategies and capabilities for implementing destruction upon Iran's nuclear facilities, and the Fordo uranium enrichment plant in particular, it's essential to consider both historical context and evolving trends.
History and Capabilities
- Aerial Strikes and Missiles: Israel has a historic track record of conducting aerial attacks on nuclear facilities within the region. Famously, it bombed Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981 and Syria's al-Kibar nuclear facility in 2007, demonstrating its proficiency in precise, surgical airstrikes.
- Intelligence and Cyber Operations: Israel is renowned for its advanced intelligence-gathering and cyber warfare capabilities. These allow Israel to collect vital intelligence about Iran's nuclear facilities and thwart them through cyber means, as demonstrated by the Stuxnet worm against Iran's nuclear centrifuges in the early 2010s.
- Deterrence and Diplomatic Pressure: Israel has employed diplomatic pressure and public awareness campaigns to discourage Iran's nuclear development. This includes advocating for international sanctions and bargaining with other nations to isolate Iran diplomatically.
- Collaboration with Allies: Israel frequently collaborates with allies, such as the United States, to gather intelligence and strategize potential strikes. This collaboration bolsters Israel's capabilities by offering access to advanced technology and military resources.
- Special Operations: Israel possesses a well-trained special operations force, which could potentially be utilized for covert operations against Iranian nuclear facilities.
Tactics for Fordo
- Bunker-Busting Bombs: To neutralize underground facilities like Fordo, Israel might employ advanced bunker-busting bombs, designed to penetrate deeply into the earth. Examples of such munitions include the GBU-28 and GBU-57, though exact details regarding their effectiveness against Fordo are classified.
- Tunnel Sealing: Another tactic could involve sealing the entrances to underground facilities, making them inaccessible without inflicting substantial damage to the internal infrastructure.
Recent Developments
Recent years have witnessed an escalation of tensions, marked by notable military actions against Iran's nuclear and military objectives. These events highlight Israel's readiness to employ military force to hinder Iran's nuclear aspirations, though specifics regarding strategies against Fordo are scarce[1].
The strategic analysis of Israel's potential moves against Iran's nuclear infrastructure, particularly the Fordo uranium enrichment plant, requires a thorough examination of historical context and evolving trends. This includes aerial strikes and missiles, intelligence and cyber operations, deterrence and diplomatic pressure, collaboration with allies, and special operations (war-and-conflicts, politics, general-news).
Among various tactics to neutralize underground facilities such as Fordo, the employment of advanced bunker-busting bombs and tunnel sealing are of particular interest (war-and-conflicts). Furthermore, discussions and analysis of Israel's strategies can be found in various online forums such as VKontakte, Classmates, Telegram, Viber, and WhatsApp (politics, general-news).
