Shifting Sands in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
Armenian Prime Minister affirms readiness to acknowledge Nagorno-Karabakh as component of Azerbaijan.
The Nagorno-Karabakh dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan persists as a delicate and heated matter. Azerbaijan's military victories, including the seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023, expelled over 100,000 ethnic Armenians from the region, drastically reshaping its demographic makeup [1][5]. However, both countries have made headway in peace negotiations.
Latest Turns in Peace Negotiations
- Peace Agreement Outline: Armenia and Azerbaijan declared in March 2025 that they have finalized the draft for a peace agreement. Yet, Azerbaijan has imposed conditions before signing, such as changes to Armenia's constitution, eliminating language perceived as a claim on Azerbaijani territory [1][3].
- Constitutional Changes Barrier: Azerbaijan's insistence on Armenian constitutional amendments has emerged as a substantial roadblock. Armenia alleges it is independently working on these changes, but the process is anticipated to take at least a year [1][3].
- Ceasefire Tensions and Displacement: Notwithstanding progress in peace negotiations, border tensions persist due to repeated alleged ceasefire violations and unattended humanitarian concerns. The forced displacement of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh remains a critical concern overshadowed in the proposed pact, sparking concerns about transitional justice and reconciliation [2][3].
- Pacts and Obstacles: The peace agreement incorporates recognition of mutual territorial integrity and the removal of claims from international courts. However, challenges such as border demarcation, refugee relocation, and passage routes remain unsettled [5].
All in all, while substantial steps have been made toward a peace agreement, unresolved problems and escalating tensions pose risks of reigniting the conflict.
In a sophisticated linguistic flip-flop earlier in 2022, Prime Minister Pashinyan urged Armenians to "lower their expectations around Nagorno-Karabakh," triggering protests [4]. Furthermore, in October 2022 in Prague, Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Aliyev pledged to commence normalizing relations based on the Almaty Declaration of 1991, which considers the administrative borders of Soviet Armenia and Soviet Azerbaijan as the foundation for border delimitation and demarcation [4].
Leaders from Nagorno-Karabakh have also been vocal, with one stating that anyone attempting to force Artsakh into Azerbaijan would "push Artsakh into a crematorium" [4]. A Russian-Armenian tycoon, serving a brief, contentious tenure as the region's state minister, has been denouncing Pashinyan's politics across platforms [4].
Negotiations regarding the peace agreement have been underway for more than a year across various formats. After recent four-day discussions between Armenia and Azerbaijan's foreign ministers in Washington, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken remarked that a peace deal was "within sight, within reach" [4].
These western-facilitated negotiations cause fury in Russia, Armenia's strategic partner and a party to the trilateral agreement that concluded the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020. Russia has also been mediating a separate Armenia-Azerbaijan dialogue since the war and finds western involvement in its backyard objectionable [4]. Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov recently accused the U.S. of compelling Armenia to "evict the Russians from your [Armenian] territory and eradicate the [Russian] military base and border guards" [4].
Pashinyan responded to these comments during his May 22 news conference, stating, "We are not receiving any signals from the West to sever ties with Russia or oust them" [4]. Relations between Armenia and Russia have deteriorated since Azerbaijan's September 2022 incursion into Armenian territory and the apparent inaction of the CSTO, a Russian-led military alliance that encompasses Armenia [4]. Nevertheless, Russian-led negotiations continue, with Pashinyan and Aliyev scheduled to meet in Moscow on May 25. The two leaders may convene with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to Russian presidential spokesperson Dmitriy Peskov, who expressed optimism that this meeting would "yield outcomes" [4].
- The latest developments in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace negotiations have sparked strong opinions, with Armenia and Azerbaijan's leaders continuing to air their views on potential constitutional changes and territorial disputes in the general news.
- The ongoing negotiations, while promising, have been met with criticism and concern, particularly from Russia, who views western involvement as an obstacle to its own mediation efforts and strategic interests in the region.
- The proposed peace agreement, while incorporating mutual territorial integrity recognition and the removal of claims from international courts, faces obstacles such as border demarcation, refugee relocation, and passage routes, which remain unsettled and are subjects of ongoing debate in both the news and migration forums.
- As the peace agreement continues to be a topic of intense politics, there are rising fears that unresolved problems and escalating tensions could reignite war-and-conflicts in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, a concern that is widely discussed in policy-and-legislation circles.
