Squaring the Circle: Unraveling Iran's Rumored Arms Sale to Armenia
Armenian-Iranian weapons transaction sparks controversy in the Caucasus region
Let's dive into the spin cycle of the current geopolitical turmoil in the South Caucasus, focusing on the juicy gossip about Iran supposedly selling $500 million worth of arms, including drones, to Armenia.
The drama kicked off with a salacious report by the Iran International, a UK-based Iranian opposition media outlet, citing an anonymous "senior military official in the Middle East." The report dropped the bombshell that Iranian-Armenian cooperation extends beyond military equipment, involving intelligence cooperation, training, and establishment of bases on Armenian soil. But hey, you know what they say: sour grapes make for juicy gossip.
However, let's slap some facts on this hearsay. Iran International has gathered quite the reputation in recent years, with the Guardian investigating its funding source, an offshore entity linked to Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Meanwhile, Iran's state-affiliated media labeled Iran International as a platform for Israel. So, who's telling the truth?
Both Iranian and Armenian officials have denied the arms deal, but Azerbaijan ain't taking any chances, with its Defense Ministry's mouthpiece, Caliber.Az, branding the report as "fake news" aimed at disrupting Azerbaijani-Iranian relations. These ties have been on a roll in the past year, as the North-South trade corridor acts as a magnet for their friendly relations.
Yet, the Azerbaijani government is keeping its fingers crossed, just in case there's even a flicker of truth in the gossip. It issued a stern warning that Armenia's provocative actions could force Azerbaijan to resume military action as a means of preventing Armenian rearmament.
So, is the scandalous arms deal just a ludicrous fabrication, or a tantalizing possibility? Well, we got no clear way of verifying the info, but there are reasons to believe it might be a bit of propaganda.
From Iran's perspective, any such deal would incur significant risks with relatively low rewards. Selling arms to Armenia would undoubtedly anger Azerbaijan and Russia, key trade partners for the burgeoning North-South corridor. On the other hand, the cash from a new arms deal would provide a welcome boost to Iran, hobbled by sanctions. Furthermore, such a sale could give Tehran a stronger bargaining chip in its dealings with Azerbaijan, with its close strategic ties to Israel continually irking Tehran.
From Armenia's perspective, the government is keen to beef up its defense capabilities, especially in the aftermath of the Karabakh war, and an injection of Iranian drones would definitely boost its military arsenal. However, any strategic engagement with Iran could jeopardize its efforts to nurture closer ties with the United States and the European Union.
The rumored arms deal arrives at a critical juncture in the peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which seem to be teetering on the brink of resolution but being held up by tug-of-war politics. The Armenian Foreign Ministry responded to the Azerbaijani warning, stressing that the republic perceives its right to defend itself and operates within international law.
In a nutshell, while we can't find any concrete evidence of the arms deal, the region's intricate political spiderweb, along with Iran's strategic interests, may influence the unstable peace process in the South Caucasus. Stay tuned for more juicy gossip from the global gossip mill!
Despite the intriguing news about potential Iranian arms sales to Armenia, general-news reports have not found any solid evidence to support this claim.Politically speaking, the implications of such a deal on regional dynamics, especially in terms of Iran's relationships with Azerbaijan, Russia, and its strategic ties with Israel, are topics of debate and speculation.
