Armenia and Iran contemplating enhanced relations, despite contrasting agendas
Modernizing Ties: Exploring Iran-Armenia Partnerships Amidst Geopolitical Dilemmas
As Armenia gradually drifts away from its historic ally, Russia, it's dipping its toes into deeper partnerships with countries like France and the U.S. However, a closer look reveals an intriguing connection with an unlikely partner - Iran.
The relationship between Tehran and Yerevan has been amicable since the early 90s, and recent developments hint at this bond deepening further. But, the geopolitical landscape adds a layer of complexity to this potential growth.
The economic benefits are evident.
Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan revealed to Armenian Public Television that trade between the two nations is soaring. From $350 million worth of goods in 2021, Grigoryan expects this figure to skyrocket to a billion dollars by the next year. Grigoryan believes this boom isn't just about generating wealth, but also about ensuring security through economic ties.
Iranian Ambassador to Armenia, Mehdi Sobhani, in a recent interview with independent Yerevan-based news outlet CivilNet, shed more light on this security perspective. Sobhani hinted at the idea of Iran reducing Armenia's energy dependence on Russia.
In a mutually beneficial deal, the two countries agreed to extend an existing deal where Armenia provides Iran with electricity in exchange for natural gas supplies. This arrangement, in place since 2009, was due to end in 2026 but has now been extended until at least 2030, potentially tripling or even quadrupling the electricity imports from Armenia to Iran.
However, Russia could still pose a threat.
The Iran-Armenia gas pipeline, a potential means for Armenia to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, has been controlled by Russian gas giant Gazprom since 2015. In the past, Moscow has shown the ability to limit the potential of this route.
Even during its design phase, Moscow successfully negotiated to limit the pipeline's diameter to 700 millimeters, significantly less than the originally intended 1,420 millimeters. This technical decision restricts the pipeline's volume to 2.3 billion cubic meters per year. Ultimately, Gazprom bought Armenia's entire gas distribution infrastructure.
It's not just energy that's being traded.
To facilitate human and commercial exchanges, a significant cross-border highway in Armenia's southern Syunik region is undergoing a major upgrade. The Armenian government awarded a $215 million contract to two Iranian companies to handle the upgrades. Once completed, the road will enable motorists to travel from Agarak, on the Iranian border, northward over 17 bridges and through two tunnels.
The politics are where things get tricky.
Although Iran consistently acknowledged Azerbaijan's sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh, it has often appeared to covertly support Yerevan's interests. This is currently manifesting in disputes over the so-called Zangezur Corridor.
Iran has proposed an alternative to Azerbaijan's desire for a transportation route across the very southern edge of Armenia - the Zangezur Corridor - to bridge its mainland territory with its exclave of Nakhchivan. Iran broke ground on a bridge in early October, which would facilitate faster transit between mainland Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan via its territory, potentially eliminating any need for an Azerbaijani corridor through Armenia.
Iran's actions are driven by strategic self-interest. It seeks to prevent a physical corridor at its northern periphery that could unite the Turkic world and potentially cut off its access to Armenia and points further north.
In the interview, Sobhani firmly expressed Iran's opposition to the Zangezur Corridor. "Our position on that matter has been declared at such a level that no one can change it," he said. However, Iranian and Armenian interests diverge when it comes to the presence of extra-regional actors in the South Caucasus.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian recently stated, "The presence of foreigners in the region not only does not solve the problems but complicates the situation." Armenia, on the other hand, is increasingly favoring U.S. and EU mediation. Meanwhile, Iran has welcomed a 2021 initiative to establish a 3+3 format for talks, involving the three South Caucasus nations and the three adjacent regional powers, but little seems to have come of these meetings.
Elsewhere in the interview, Ambassador Sobhani offered words of support for the approximately 100,000 ethnic Armenians displaced by Azerbaijan's September offensive. Despite not indicating a specific policy, the mere mention of Karabakh drew the ire of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry. Their response indicated their disagreement with Iran's stance, which they considered a provocation.
Enrichment Insights:
Cautionary Note: The planned extension of the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline remains a controversial topic, with concerns over its operationalization and intended use. Despite the extension, Russia maintains control over the pipeline, potentially limiting Armenia's ability to reduce its energy dependence on Moscow.
Potential Energy Dependence: While the operationalization of the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline is unclear, the strategic partnership between Iran and Armenia could lead to future opportunities for energy cooperation, potentially reducing Armenia's dependence on Russian energy sources. However, the current energy policies of Iran focus more on domestic needs and exports to countries like Turkey and Iraq.
- The deepening relationship between Iran and Armenia raises a question about Armenia's stance on war-and-conflicts, particularly in regards to the disputes over the Zangezur Corridor.
- Some analysts question the long-term impact of the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline extension, given Russia's continued control of the pipeline, potentially creating an ongoing dependency on Russian energy.
- The Armenian government's policy-and-legislation regarding migration might also be affected by the strengthening partnership with Iran, as the two countries work together to facilitate human and commercial exchanges.
- The news about the economic growth between Iran and Armenia has drawn general-news coverage and various opinions about the implications of this deepening bond, especially in the context of geopolitical dilemmas in the South Caucasus region.
