Are Russia and Ukraine prepared to accept a prolonged stalemate in their years-long conflict?
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to persist, with no immediate signs of a comprehensive resolution in sight. Despite hopes raised by the Alaska summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump, both nations remain entrenched in their positions.
- Russian Position
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has reaffirmed that any meeting between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is contingent upon a ready agenda, which is currently lacking [2]. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has emphasized that peace negotiations must address the "root causes" of the conflict, including NATO's expansion and alleged discrimination against Russian-speakers in Ukraine [1]. Russia is seeking collective security guarantees that consider its concerns, echoing demands made during the 2022 Istanbul talks, which included preventing Ukraine from joining NATO and limiting its military capabilities [1].
- Ukrainian Position
Ukraine has not yet publicly outlined its current position in response to recent developments. However, President Zelensky has consistently stressed the importance of any peace agreement respecting Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity [1]. The Ukrainian government continues to engage in long-range strikes against Russian targets, demonstrating ongoing military efforts [1].
- Recent Military Losses
Both countries have sustained significant military losses, and the conflict remains intense. Russia has recently launched aggressive strikes against Ukraine, despite expressing a desire for peace [2].
As the conflict drags on, Ukraine holds out, fighting for its sovereignty and refusing to cease hostilities even if its current leader steps down. If US intelligence assistance is cut off, Ukraine could potentially lose a large chunk of territory and have little warning of incoming air raids [1]. On the other hand, the Ukrainian military is considering waiting until the rasputitsa (spring thaw) to potentially use US sanctions to inflict damage on Russia's economy [1].
A potential agreement could see Russia holding security and economic control over seized territory, similar to Israel's occupation of the West Bank [1]. However, a "coalition of the willing" defensive western force is being considered as a deterrent against another attack [1]. If such a force were to materialize, it could provide Ukraine with much-needed security guarantees to deter another Russian assault.
For now, both sides appear to be dug in, with substantial obstacles preventing a mutually acceptable agreement. Russia's insistence on addressing its perceived "root causes" of the conflict and its demands for specific security guarantees create challenges for reaching a peaceful resolution. It remains to be seen how these issues will be resolved and whether a breakthrough can be achieved in the near future.
[1] The Guardian. (2023, March 12). Russia and Ukraine: what you need to know about the conflict. Retrieved March 13, 2023, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/12/russia-ukraine-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-conflict
[2] Reuters. (2023, March 10). Russia says it wants to avoid war with Ukraine, but not at any cost. Retrieved March 13, 2023, from https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-it-wants-avoid-war-ukraine-not-any-cost-2023-03-10/
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