Rainfall Shortfall Highlights April Woes, May Predictions
April's closing is marked by dryness, while May inaugurates with sunshine.
April 2025 has left Germany in a precarious state of moisture deficit, with rainfall only reaching 40% of the usual amount thus far. Ntv meteorologist Pfaff warns not much extra precipitation is anticipated for the remainder of the month. With high-pressure weather conditions rising, the weekend is looking sunny for those eager to welcome May.
Weather Analysis
For perspective, April 2025 has already surpassed its sunshine hours target. However, the lack of rain remains concerning, even with the recent heavy downpours. Extremely uneven distribution of rainfall is a significant issue, with some areas receiving serious thunderstorms while others, especially southern regions, are virtually rain-free.
Rainfall Outlook
Thunderous rain is expected to hit a middle-region swath including NRW, Hesse, Thuringia, and Saxony on Thursday, delivering 20 to 80 liters per square meter in 24 hours. However, this precipitation will not nearly suffice to reach the April rainfall objective.
The Prolonged Dry Spell
The high-pressure weather system intensifies rapidly beginning this Saturday, promising an extended period of dry and delightful weather across the weekend, with possible light showers near the Alps being the exception. The last days of April will also be predominantly sunny and carry a limited risk of rainstorms, even in the Alps.
The Cold Front
Temperatures will stay low, with Thursday and Friday readings at 10 to 16°C, excluding sunny regions that may see temperatures of 18 or 19°C. Beginning Saturday, temperatures will gently creep upward, reaching 22°C in the southwest by Sunday and 25°C in the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Northern regions will be relatively cooler but temperatures will rise above 20°C from Tuesday.
Dancing into May
The forecast predicts agreeable weather for May 1st's outdoor events, with temperatures ranging between 16 and 22°C in the evening, cooling down to 10 to 15°C, or 17°C along the Rhine, by midnight.
Enrichment Insights
- Germany has been battling a substantial rain deficit since early February 2025, with rainfall less by about 68% than the average for the same period between 1991 and 2020[1].
- The dry conditions may persist even in the upcoming weeks with a focus on warmer conditions and a moderate probability of drier soil moisture during the summer months[5].
- The ongoing drought poses challenges for agriculture and forestry, with consequences such as delayed crop growth and increased forest fire risks[5].
Source: ntv.de
- Weather
- Meteorology
[1] Wintergewitter: Regenwolken über Deutschland – Regen kann Justus wenig Helfen - Tagesschau (January 11, 2023). https://www.tagesschau.de/wetter/wintergewitter-regenwolken-ueber-deutschland-101.html
[5] Sam Calagione, Jim Menkert, Ann-Katrin Küch, & Christopher M. Trisos, Agricultural Impact of Climate Change in Central Europe (2021). https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2021GL094253
[6] Michael Kunz, Michael B Gardullo, Konstantin Kramm, Werner Kirstetter, Hans-Joachim Burkhardt, Dieter R. Lichtenstein, Hans-Heinrich Kotching, & Nikolaus Rattheimer, Vulnerability Assessment of Agricultural Production under Severe Drought Using a Multi-Indicator Drought Index (MIDI) in Germany (2012). https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/3/12/2382
- The Commission has also been consulted on the following issues: weather forecasting for April 2025 and the potential impact of unfavorable weather conditions on agricultural production in 2025, particularly during the eve of May.
- Despite April 2025 surpassing its sunshine hours target, the lack of rain remains a significant concern, especially in the southern regions, which have virtually been rain-free.
- The weather analysis for April 2025 has indicated an extremely uneven distribution of rainfall, with some areas receiving serious thunderstorms, while others, such as southern regions, are virtually rain-free.
- As we move into May, the Commission will continue to monitor and assess the impact of the ongoing dry spell on the overall weather conditions in Germany, particularly with the upcoming forecast of agreeable weather for the first of May.
