Approximately 450,000 Afghans have journeyed back from Iran
In the wake of the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan in the summer of 2021, the situation in the war-torn country has continued to pose challenges for its citizens, leading to significant refugee movements towards Europe. However, recent data indicates a decline in new asylum applications by Afghans since mid-2023.
The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) representative in Afghanistan, Arafat Jamal, has warned against forcing people to return to Afghanistan, emphasizing the potential impact on the region and Europe due to forced returns of Afghan refugees. Jamal's warning comes amidst ongoing concerns about the situation in Afghanistan and potential refugee movements.
The causes of the increased Afghan refugee movements towards Europe are complex. Ongoing instability, conflict, and deteriorating security and economic conditions in Afghanistan have historically pushed many Afghans to seek asylum abroad. Political turmoil and the Taliban's control since 2021 have continued to create fear and uncertainty, motivating migration attempts. Regional dynamics and limited prospects for safe and sustainable living in neighboring countries also contribute to onward movement towards Europe.
Although Afghans remain among the top groups seeking protection in the EU, the number of asylum applications by Afghans has been generally declining since mid-2023. In the first quarter of 2025, Afghans were still the largest single nationality among those granted protection in the EU. EU countries receiving the most Afghan asylum seekers include Spain, Italy, France, and Germany, which together accounted for 78% of first-time asylum applicants in March 2025.
However, the UNHCR representative's warning suggests a concern about the potential consequences of forced returns on regional stability and refugee movements. Jamal stated that putting pressure on Afghan refugees to return could lead to increased instability in the region. The UNHCR representative did not specify which countries were being warned against forcing Afghan refugees to return.
The Iranian government set a deadline for Afghan nationals without valid residence permits to leave the country by July 6, and many returnees from Iran have reported being pressured, arrested, and deported by Iranian authorities. Between June 1 and July 5, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported 449,218 Afghan citizens returned to their homeland. Since June, nearly 449,000 Afghans have returned to their homeland from Iran, raising concerns about the potential impact on the region and Europe.
The UNHCR representative did not provide any details about the number of Afghan refugees potentially affected by forced returns. Afghanistan has suffered from war for decades and is one of the poorest countries in the world. The economic impacts of refugee movements are significant, with refugees contributing to labor markets and economies in host countries but also requiring initial support and integration programs, which can be resource-intensive.
The potential impacts of increased Afghan refugee movements towards Europe are far-reaching. Demographic and social impacts include challenges for social integration, education, and child protection services in host countries. The presence of Afghan refugees continues to influence EU migration policy, asylum processing capacity, and bilateral relations with countries in and around Afghanistan. Ongoing instability in Afghanistan and continued migration flows keep humanitarian needs high, including for protection and support services.
In summary, while Afghan refugee movements towards Europe remain significant, recent data suggests a decline in new asylum applications since mid-2023. The causes remain rooted in Afghanistan’s instability, and while arrivals are currently decreasing, Afghan refugees continue to significantly impact European asylum and integration systems. The UNHCR representative's warning highlights the potential risks associated with forcing Afghan refugees to return to their homeland and the potential consequences for regional stability and refugee movements.
- The UNHCR representative's warning highlights the potential risks associated with implementing community policies that force Afghan refugees to return to Afghanistan, considering the possible impact on regional stability and subsequent refugee movements.
- Employment policies in Europe may need to consider the potential implications of forced returns on Afghan refugees, as these decisions could affect the general-news landscape, including ongoing migrations and war-and-conflicts in Afghanistan.
