Anticipating the Conclusion of the Conflict: Perspectives on Ukraine, Russia, and the Path to Triumph
The United States has outlined a clear strategy in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, aiming to support Ukraine's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and democratic governance, while deterring further Russian aggression. This strategy, as reflected in President Joe Biden's policy statements and the 2022 National Security Strategy, prioritises military and diplomatic assistance to Ukraine, without direct US combat involvement or promises of Ukraine joining NATO.
At the heart of this strategy is the provision of sustained military aid to Ukraine. This aid, which resumed in 2025 after temporary pauses, is intended to strengthen Ukraine's defence capabilities and resist Russian advances. The support is part of a broader NATO and Western coalition effort.
The US does not see Ukraine joining NATO as a realistic or immediate outcome of any negotiated settlement. Instead, the US emphasises "robust security guarantees" that are less formal but intended to deter Russia while avoiding direct NATO expansion. The Biden administration firmly rules out sending American troops as peacekeepers or combatants to Ukraine, maintaining the conflict as a proxy fight without direct US ground engagement.
President Biden frames the war as a global test of democratic values against autocracy, suggesting that a democratic victory in Ukraine is essential for the broader international order. Despite a military stalemate or war of attrition, the administration remains committed to continuing support, believing that Ukraine can eventually achieve a favourable outcome through military resilience.
The US expects European allies to provide increasing financial and military support, while the US focuses on its own security and strategic priorities. Although the US and Ukraine have explored ceasefire possibilities sporadically, US policy pivots around enabling Ukraine to negotiate from a position of strength rather than conceding to Russian demands upfront.
The US will continue to support Ukraine in its fight for freedom, help Ukraine recover economically, and encourage its regional integration with the European Union. Russia's conventional military will have been weakened, which may increase Moscow's reliance on nuclear weapons in its military planning.
The US retains an interest in preserving strategic stability and developing a more expansive, transparent, and verifiable arms control infrastructure to succeed New START and in rebuilding European security arrangements which have fallen into disrepair due to Russia's actions. The 2022 National Security Strategy delineates the US strategy vis-a-vis Ukraine, Russian aggression, and the stability of Europe and the world in general.
The US will defend every inch of NATO territory and continue to build and deepen a coalition with allies and partners to prevent Russia from causing further harm to European security, democracy, and institutions. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the United States Military Academy, Department of the Army, or Department of Defense.
Image Credit: Chad J. McNeeley, DoD.
Note: The United States, along with its allies, has provided support to Ukraine quickly after Russia's invasion last February and this support has grown rapidly since. This article in the New York Post provides a discussion on the potential endings of the Russia-Ukraine war.
[1] Goldgeier, J., & McFaul, M. (2022). A New US Policy Toward Russia and Ukraine. Foreign Affairs. [2] O'Hanlon, M. E. (2022). What a US-Russia War Would Look Like. Foreign Policy.
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