Anticipating China-Russia Discussion: Previewing the Xi Putin Summit Dialogue
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Chinese President's Visit to Russia: A Show of Support for an Ally under Pressure
Hey there! Let's dive into the upcoming meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Our team of experts, Steve Rosenberg (Russia) and Stephen McDonell (China), have been keeping an eye on this development and we're here to break down what's at stake for both sides.
Encouragement from an ally in tough times
Imagine finding yourself in a tough spot - international sanctions piling up, you're knee-deep in a bloody conflict, and an international criminal court has issued an arrest warrant for you. It's times like these that you need a friend. Enter Xi Jinping.
Xi Jinping, once affectionately labeled Putin's "best friend," shares many similarities with Putin, both being authoritarian leaders endorsing the concept of a "multi-polar world" without US dominance. In Moscow, they're expected to sign an agreement on "deepening the comprehensive partnership" between their two nations. This being Xi's first visit following Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year, it's a clear show of support for Moscow.
As Russia navigates through intense global criticism, its partnership with China is crucial in standing up to the opposition. Nobel Peace Prize laureate Dmitry Muratov believes that Putin is in search of allies and aiming to make Russia part of a common fortress with China, India, some parts of Latin America, and Africa, forming his own anti-Western world.
Russia's heavy reliance on China
War has become the organizing principle of Russian domestic politics, diplomacy, and economic policy, with a persistent obsession towards destroying Ukraine. To achieve this, Russia needs arms, cash, and an economic lifeline. According to Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, China provides Russia with essential components for weapons, private technology that can be used for military purposes, and money.
Trade between the two powerhouses is thriving, particularly in the energy sector. Expect oil, gas, and energy pipelines to be on the agenda at the Putin-Xi talks. But what about direct military aid? The US claims that Beijing is considering providing it, but China remains tight-lipped on the matter.
Xi's signals to Putin: A balancing act
While Xi Jinping's visit to Russia is officially to promote bilateral ties between neighbors, the world is eagerly watching this one due to the current geopolitical landscape. With China claiming neutrality, there are three possibilities for Xi's signals to Putin:
- Time to consider a withdrawal with a face-saving concession
- Approval to keep pressing on or even escalate
- Remaining neutral
Given China's recent successful mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, option 1 appears less likely. If China were to help initiate a peaceful resolution, it would further solidify its position as a global mediator. However, the downside is that such a move might not significantly benefit China.
Option 2 could potentially play into Beijing's geopolitical strategy. The longer the war persists, the more it drains Nato resources, and, even more critically, alarms Western public about the possibility of another conflict elsewhere. This might persuade China to remain neutral in the short term, but the long-term implications are hard to predict.
Stay tuned for updates as Xi Jinping's visit to Russia unfolds! The world is waiting with bated breath to see how the geopolitical landscape shifts in the aftermath of this meeting.
Last Updated: 20 March 2023
Additional Insights:
China's role in Russia's conflict with Ukraine is placed with caution and subtle diplomacy. Although refraining from directly condemning Russia's invasion, China criticizes Western “double standards” regarding territorial integrity issues. Simultaneously, China is carefully preparing for a potential post-war role in Ukraine, signaling its readiness to engage economically and diplomatically in Ukraine's reconstruction or political future. This complex stance reflects China's broader geopolitical interests in shaping the global environment and consolidating its role as a major power in Eurasia.
- Despite the ongoing international criticism of Russia, its partnership with China, particularly in the areas of economy, technology, and policy-and-legislation, serves as a crucial support in standing up to opposition.
- The Chinese President, Xi Jinping, is expected to sign an agreement on deepening the comprehensive partnership with Russia during his visit, a show of support for Moscow.
- New developments in war-and-conflicts, like the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, have highlighted the strategic importance of having strong allies, with China playing a potential role in any peaceful resolution.
- As part of a balancing act, China's stance towards Russia's conflict with Ukraine may indicate an approach that supports diplomacy and general-news, while maintaining a neutral position in the short term, with long-term implications remaining uncertain.
