Anticipated Weather Prediction by the United Nations Meteorological Department: 2024 Forecast to Pave Way for New Temperature Records
Global Temperature Record Expected to Be Broken Within the Next Five Years
According to a forecast led by the UK Met Office, there is an 80% probability that the global temperature record, currently held by 2024, will be broken in the next five years. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in Geneva has also reported that it is increasingly likely the world will exceed the 1.5°C warming limit.
The forecast, which utilizes climate models from 15 institutions, including the German Weather Service, predicts that the average global temperature will surpass the 1.5°C mark by 2029. This could jeopardize a key climate goal established at the 2015 Paris UN climate summit, where it was decided to limit global warming to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels.
If the 1.5°C limit is consistently exceeded, it could lead to various severe and far-reaching consequences. These include increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events, sea-level rise, loss of biodiversity, economic disruption, food and water security issues, human migration and conflict, and health hazards such as the spread of diseases and heat-related illnesses.
In addition, the WMO expects above-average seasonal rainfall in several regions, including Northern Europe and South Asia. However, it is projected to be drier in the Amazon. The Arctic region around the North Pole is expected to warm more than three times faster during winter months.
To prevent long-term global warming from exceeding the 1.5°C limit, significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, as well as the removal of large amounts of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, would be necessary. This requires swift and substantial action on reducing emissions—by at least 43% by 2030.
Progressing from the foretold breakage of the global temperature record and the likelihood of the world surpassing the 1.5°C warming limit, warnings of severe climate-change consequences scale up. Exceeding the 1.5°C limit may result in heightened extreme weather, sea-level rise, environmental-science disruptions, food and water shortages, human migration, conflict, and health threats such as disease and heat-related illnesses.
