Anticipated Surge in Homeless Population in Berlin by 2029 Predicted
Berlin, the vibrant capital of Germany, is bracing itself for a significant increase in homelessness by 2029. According to the forecast from Berlin's social affairs department, over 85,600 people could be homeless in the city by the end of the decade.
The rise in homelessness is primarily attributed to escalating housing affordability issues, increased poverty, and socioeconomic pressures exacerbated by rental market dynamics. The sharp rise in housing costs, driven by short-term rental loopholes, has contributed to a general scarcity of affordable housing in the city.
The city of Berlin started systematically tracking homelessness numbers in 2022. Since then, the numbers have increased significantly. In 2022, there were approximately 26,000 homeless people in Berlin. By 2025, this number had doubled to more than 53,600.
The Social Services Administration in Berlin defines homelessness as including three groups: those placed in temporary accommodation by the city, those living unofficially with friends or family, and those without any shelter at all. The forecast does not include those temporarily staying with friends or family, or living on the streets.
Poverty rates in Berlin are higher than in many other German regions, with 15.2% of inhabitants and over 30% of children receiving welfare payments. This economic vulnerability correlates with an increased risk of homelessness.
Nationally, Germany has experienced a 150% increase in homelessness since 2014, reflecting a broader trend impacting Berlin as well. The rising homelessness forecasts by 2029 underscore the unresolved structural problems like insufficient affordable housing supply, socioeconomic disparities, and labor market challenges that leave many unable to secure stable accommodation.
Local policy responses aimed at curbing rental abuses indicate recognition of these underlying causes. Berlin is considering policy measures such as banning short-term furnished apartment rentals to address loopholes that inflate rents and displace residents in certain districts.
The total number of individuals requiring housing in Berlin, including refugees in state-run housing centers, people living in emergency accommodation facilities like Tegel, and those unofficially living with friends or family, could reach nearly 115,000 by 2029. This forecasted number includes individuals housed in shelters, hostels, or emergency accommodation by Berlin's districts.
A new federal survey will be published every two years, supplementing local data with national figures on undocumented homelessness. The increasing numbers of homeless people in Berlin indicate a deepening structural failure rather than a temporary crisis.
As Berlin navigates this challenging period, it is crucial to address the root causes of homelessness and work towards creating a more equitable and affordable housing market. The city's future depends on its ability to tackle this pressing issue effectively.
The escalating homelessness crisis in Berlin, as forecasted by 2029, is not isolated but part of a general trend of increased homelessness in Germany, which has seen a 150% increase since 2014. This troubling predicament underscores the need for political action to address the root causes, such as insufficient affordable housing, socioeconomic disparities, and labor market challenges.
Addressing the sharp rise in housing costs, driven by short-term rental loopholes, is crucial to curbing homelessness, as it contributes to a general scarcity of affordable housing in the city. Local policy responses, such as the proposed ban on short-term furnished apartment rentals in Berlin, indicate a recognition of this underlying issue and a commitment to addressing it.
