Anticipated significant increase in Q3 adjusted EBITDDA for PotlatchDeltic, primarily due to recovery in real estate and wood product sectors
PotlatchDeltic Corporation Expects Strong Q3 2025 Recovery
PotlatchDeltic Corporation (PCH) is gearing up for a significant improvement in its Q3 2025 financial performance, according to management projections. The company anticipates a substantial increase in its Total Adjusted EBITDDA compared to Q2 2025, driven by operational improvements.
The anticipated boost in Adjusted EBITDDA for Q3 is due to improved harvest volumes, lumber shipments, and real estate sales. Northern sawlog prices are expected to reach around $136 per ton, supporting improved earnings from timberlands. Lumber shipments are forecasted to rise to 310-320 million board feet (MMBF) in Q3, up from 303 MMBF shipped in Q2, thanks to the completion of the Waldo sawmill modernization project.
PotlatchDeltic remains committed to its active share repurchase program. In Q2, the company spent $56 million to buy back 1.4 million shares, compared to $8 million in Q1. Management's confidence in the company's intrinsic value continues into Q3, with about $30 million remaining in the $200 million authorization as of late July 2025.
Management's tone has shifted from cautious optimism in Q1 to more explicit confidence about recovery in H2 2025. This change in sentiment is based on the expected operational improvements and the ongoing share repurchases, which are expected to support shareholder value.
However, the company remains mindful of ongoing macroeconomic and trade policy uncertainty, particularly risks from potential tariffs and duties on imported lumber. Management has highlighted these risks as a significant concern, particularly for the Wood Products division, which remains exposed to market volatility and nonrecurring operational issues.
In addition, analysts' focus has shifted from macro demand and tariff speculation in Q1 to operational execution and reversal of nonrecurring Q2 impacts. The potential sustainability of higher lumber prices and the timing of supply adjustments continue to be areas of interest and debate among analysts.
Despite these challenges, PotlatchDeltic remains focused on disciplined capital allocation, with share repurchases prioritized. The company also sees natural climate solutions as providing incremental growth opportunities.
In summary, the Q3 2025 outlook for PotlatchDeltic is cautiously optimistic, with a strong operational recovery expected through higher harvest volumes, rising lumber prices, increased shipments, and ongoing share repurchases. The company continues to navigate the complexities of the lumber market and trade policy uncertainty, but remains committed to creating value for its shareholders.
Despite the ongoing macroeconomic and trade policy uncertainty, PotlatchDeltic's management aims to capitalize on the growth opportunities in the real estate sector by focusing on disciplined capital allocation. In the midst of PotlatchDeltic's strong operational recovery, it is vital for sports enthusiasts to stay updated on the weather forecasts, as any unforeseen weather changes could potentially impact the harvest volumes and lumber shipments.
