Anticipated Political Developments Following Iraq's Electoral Outcome
Iraq's Political Landscape Shifts After Elections
The political landscape in Iraq has undergone significant changes following the October 10, 2021 parliamentary elections. The formation of the new government has been marked by challenges, including the fragmentation of major political blocs and tensions between pro-Iranian factions and those aligned with the nationalist Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr.
Muqtada al-Sadr, who led the Sadrist Movement and played a central role in post-election government formation negotiations in 2021, appears to have stepped back somewhat from his previous kingmaker position. This has opened space for other Shia factions, particularly Iranian-backed groups such as the Badr Organization and the Shia Coordination Framework, to assert greater influence.
The absence or diminished influence of Muqtada al-Sadr means that pro-Iranian parties, despite having lost some seats in 2021 due to internal competition, are actively encouraged by Iran to unify in order to maintain control of the Iraqi parliament and influence the government formation process. This shifts the balance away from the more nationalist or independent Shiite factions towards Iran-backed coalitions, potentially making government formation more reliant on consensus among these parties and their Iranian patrons.
The power struggle between Sadr and Maliki continues to shape Iraq's government formation. Nouri Maliki, leader of the State of Law Alliance, whose group emerged as the second biggest bloc from the elections, is a potential fourth partner. However, Ihsan, a political scientist at King's College London, finds that possibility a far-fetched bid due to past conflicts between Sadr and Maliki. Sadr has stated he will not form a government with Maliki.
If a government is formed, Sunni bloc's Halbousi and Kurdish leader Barzani are likely to be in the new government. However, Sadr, Halbousi, and Barzani have significantly increased their share of seats in the parliament, according to initial results, but they are still short of a majority and need the support of other winning candidates to form Iraq's next government.
Mohammed Ihsan believes that Baghdad's "best government scenario is a majority government" comprising of Sadr, Halbousi, and Barzani. However, some experts caution that a unity government is not a good option because it keeps everything in the same structure, preventing any political transformation. Small parties and minority members might join Sadr, Halbousi, and Barzani to form the Iraqi government, but this could potentially lead to a vicious circle, triggering popular protests like the ones Iraqis saw in 2019.
Iraq continues to face significant political unrest and governance challenges, including widespread protests against corruption, power shortages, and restrictions on freedoms such as assembly and expression. Regional disputes, such as the conflict between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government over oil revenues and recent drone attacks on Kurdish oil fields, add further complexity to the political landscape.
In summary, after the 2021 elections, the Iraqi political scene is characterized by fragmented Shiite blocs with diminished influence of Muqtada al-Sadr as kingmaker, increasing the role of Iran-backed factions like the Badr Organization and the Shia Coordination Framework in government formation. This change impacts the coalition-building process and likely complicates reaching consensus, with ongoing socio-political tensions and inter-regional disputes influencing the broader stability and governance of Iraq.
References: 1. Al-Monitor (2021, November 15). Badr Organization announces independent run for 2025 elections. Retrieved from https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/11/iraq-badr-organization-announces-independent-run-for-2025-elections.html 2. Human Rights Watch (2021, February 10). Iraq: Protests Met with Brutal Force. Retrieved from https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/02/10/iraq-protests-met-brutal-force 3. Al-Monitor (2021, July 16). Iraqi Kurdistan's oil fields hit by drone attacks. Retrieved from https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/07/iraq-kurdistan-oil-fields-hit-drone-attacks 4. Amnesty International (2021, May 18). Iraq: Escalating violence against protesters. Retrieved from https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2021/05/iraq-escalating-violence-against-protesters/
- The political landscape in Iraq, amidst significant shifts following the 2021 elections, has seen a decline in the influence of Muqtada al-Sadr, allowing for a greater role of Iran-backed factions like the Badr Organization and the Shia Coordination Framework in the formation of future governments, influencing policy and legislation.
- Iraq's entertainment industry, faced with ongoing political unrest and governance challenges, offers a temporary escape from the complexities of war-and-conflicts, news, and policy-and-legislation, providing a platform for general-news as well.
- International observers and news outlets alike have been covering the history of Iraq's political instability, detailing the origins of tension between pro-Iranian parties and nationalist Shiite leaders like Muqtada al-Sadr and Nouri Maliki, shedding light on the influences shaping Iraq's current political climate.
