Anticipated hurricane prediction by NOAA: What's in store for Florida during the last stretch of the hurricane season
NOAA Forecasts Above-Average 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued its forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a slightly lowered but still above-average outlook. The season, which runs from June 1st to November 30th, is expected to see 13 to 18 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes, and 2 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3–5).
These predictions, updated in early August 2025, represent a slight decrease compared to the climatological averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. NOAA assigns a 50% chance of an above-average season, 35% chance of near-average, and 15% chance of below-average activity for the entire season.
Florida residents and neighbouring states are advised to take the forecast seriously and prepare accordingly. This includes developing a family emergency plan, stocking up on essential supplies, inspecting their home's structure, and staying informed through official channels.
As of August 21st, the season has already produced 5 named storms, including one major hurricane, Erin. However, it's important to note that NOAA's seasonal forecasts do not precisely indicate where hurricanes will make landfall. The details of hurricane landfall can only be predicted with about a week's notice.
In contrast, the Central Pacific forecast remains unchanged, with an estimate of between one and four storms. Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season is expected to be below normal, with 12 to 18 named storms. Nine storms have already been recorded in the Eastern Pacific this season.
Differences in water temperatures and atmospheric patterns cause variations between hurricane seasons in different basins. These factors contribute to the unpredictability of where and when hurricanes will make landfall, underscoring the importance of preparedness for coastal communities.
[1] NOAA. (2025). 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. Retrieved from https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-predicts-above-average-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season
[2] National Hurricane Center. (2025). 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Retrieved from https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2025atlantic
[3] The Weather Channel. (2025). NOAA Forecasts Above-Average 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Retrieved from https://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/noaa-forecasts-above-average-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season
[4] National Hurricane Center. (2025). Tropical Storm Erin. Retrieved from https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/erin.shtml
[5] AccuWeather. (2025). NOAA Predicts Above-Average 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Retrieved from https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/noaa-predicts-above-average-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season/1001723848
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