Anticipated favorable crop yields for European winter grains during the upcoming season
Europe is experiencing a diverse crop yield outlook in 2025, with positive prospects in some regions and areas of concern in others. The weather conditions have played a significant role in shaping the crop yield prospects across the continent.
### Positive Prospects
The European Union (EU)-27+UK grain output is forecast to increase by approximately 7% compared to last year, with wheat production expected at 143.1 million tonnes and barley at 59.2 million tonnes. The rise is mainly due to favourable weather in southeastern Europe, Spain, and France. The European Commission has also raised its forecast for EU soft wheat production to 128.2 million tonnes, 15% higher than the rain-affected 2024/25 crop, with upward revisions for Romania, Spain, and France due to plentiful recent rainfall. Barley and maize production forecasts have also been increased.
The rapeseed crop is recovering, with a forecast increase to 20 million tonnes, thanks to a return to normal planting and better yields in France and Germany. Winter cereals remain resilient, with good yield prospects across the EU, particularly in Spain, Portugal, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, and the Baltics. Despite delays, rice benefits from improved water availability, with yields expected above the five-year average.
### Areas of Concern
Persistent drought is affecting western Belgium, central France, eastern Germany, western Poland, and Hungary, increasingly impacting yield potential for spring and summer crops. A significant spring rainfall deficit (about 50%) in western Belgium and southwestern Netherlands has negatively affected grain filling and summer crops, with no relief forecasted.
The European Commission has lowered the 2025/26 sunflower crop forecast mainly due to ongoing drought and heatwaves in key countries like France, Hungary, and Italy. France’s sunflower forecast was cut by 233,000 tonnes amid serious drought and high temperatures. Despite the reduction, EU sunflower production is still expected to exceed last year’s crop by 14.4%.
Localized pest outbreaks and excess rainfall pose challenges in some regions. Northern Italy’s winter crops face yield reductions due to excess rainfall, and pest outbreaks threaten root and tuber crops in southern and central Germany. Recent heatwaves in July 2025 have caused stress to crops across southern Europe, but the full impacts are still developing.
### Summary
Crop Type | Regions with Positive Outlook | Regions/Factors of Concern --- | --- | --- Wheat & Barley | Spain, France, SE Europe, Romania, Bulgaria | Central France, Belgium (drought), eastern Germany Rapeseed | France, Germany, Romania, Bulgaria | None specifically noted, normal planting resumed Sunflower Seeds | Overall EU higher than last year | France, Hungary, Italy (drought and heat stress) Winter Cereals | Spain, Portugal, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Baltics | Excess rainfall in northern Italy, pests in Germany Rice | General (improved water availability) | None significant
In conclusion, spring and summer crops in Europe are mostly projected to yield higher than last year due to favourable rains and recovery in planting, especially for cereals and rapeseed. However, drought and heat stress in key regions like Belgium, France, parts of Germany, and Hungary pose localized risks, particularly for sunflowers and summer crops. Monitoring weather developments remains critical for these vulnerable areas.
Elsewhere in Europe, prolonged drought and heat have led to a significant reduction in winter crop outcomes in eastern Ukraine, Turkey, Cyprus, and the western Maghreb.
- The increase in European grain output, particularly wheat and barley, is predominantly due to favorable weather conditions in southeastern Europe, Spain, and France, ensuring a higher level of food security for those regions.
- Conversely, persistent drought and heatwaves in key countries like France, Hungary, and Italy have led to a lower sunflower crop forecast, potentially impacting both food security and the data related to crop yields in these regions.
- Educating farmers about adaptive measures, such as resilient crop varieties and irrigation techniques, becomes increasingly important in areas like central France, Belgium, eastern Germany, western Poland, and Hungary, where drought and less favorable weather conditions continue to pose an emergency risk to their food security.
