Anticipated Climactic Vienna Election Fight to the Finish
The Vienna Town Hall Coalition's Majority Might Crumble on Sunday, but the SPÖ Will Maintain Its Grip on the Capital
It was set to be the year's major power shift: The emergence of a black-and-blue coalition in the parliament had Vienna's mayor Michael Ludwig smelling victory. The coalition between the SPÖ and NEOS, who've ruled since 2020, brought the municipal council election forward, aiming to create an anti-Kickl-Stocker coalition and win through massive mobilization.
Over a Million Voters Are Set to Decide
But now, a million Viennese residents — both women and men — face the ballot box on Sunday. However, the circumstances are drastically different. The black-and-blue coalition has disintegrated due to Herbert Kickl's reluctance to compromise; the country is governed by an Ampel coalition featuring the SPÖ and NEOS, and Ludwig's primary opponent has vanished from the campaign trail.
SPÖ Poised to Stay Ahead
Despite the altered landscape, the SPÖ will likely remain the capital's foremost party, ensuring Mayor Ludwig's continued tenure. Yet, this could either discourage some SPÖ supporters or even sway them towards the Greens.
And the FPO, with Dominik Nepp at the helm, will likely surpass the 20-5% mark once more with their familiar rough populism, but they won't constitute a threat to the reds, be it cooperation notwithstanding. Achieving over 25% would be an astounding outcome.
The NEOS Lag Behind
But the NEOS, too, have been taken aback by the federal government's formation, and now their lead candidate, Christoph Wiederkehr (bound for Minister of Education), is no longer in the race. In his place, Bettina Emmerling steps up.
In an uphill battle, Ludwig must prove his mettle against the Greens in the western districts, but the Freedom Party is on the rise in the large area districts of Favoriten, Simmering, Donaustadt, and Floridsdorf. Political debates surrounding youth crime, asylum, and social benefits strain the SPÖ from the right, while the Lobau tunnel poses a threat from the left. Simmering and Floridsdorf have the potential to turn blue again, endangering SPÖ majorities.
And so, Ludwig faces a tense election race. His only allies to keepSPÖ dominance are the Greens and the OVP, with Karl Mahrer providing a more comfortable fit politically. But Ludwig has sworn off any cooperation with the Blues. With the failure of black-and-blue at the federal level, nothing has changed.
Insights:The public's engagement in the 2025 election is expected to be low due to political fatigue[1]. Experts predict a voter turnout in the 60% range[1][3]. Moreover, older voters (who lean towards SPÖ) are expected to turn out more reliably than younger demographics[1]. Furthermore, a continuation of the current SPÖ-NEOS ("red-pink") coalition appears viable but uncertain[3][4]. Alternatives include three-party alliances with the ÖVP or Greens if the NEOS do not deliver sufficient support[3]. Lastly, Mayor Ludwig’s position remains secure as no realistic majority against the SPÖ is feasible[4].
- The SPÖ is expected to maintain its dominance in Vienna's politics, possibly motivating some supporters to shift towards the Greens.
- The FPO, under Dominik Nepp's leadership, will likely gain over 20% of the votes, but they won't pose a serious threat to the SPÖ.
- The disintegration of the black-and-blue coalition has left the NEOS in an uphill battle, with Bettina Emmerling taking over as their lead candidate.
- Mayor Ludwig faces a tense election race, with the Greens and OVP as his potential allies, although he has sworn off cooperation with the Blues.
- A war-and-conflicts policy, migration policy, and legislation policies are likely to be key issues in the general news leading up to the election, influencing public opinion and motivating voters in Vienna.
