Anticipated Battle Predictions and Combination Bets for UFC Fight Night, Kape vs Almabayev Showdown
A Fresh Take
Author: Dan Craymer - March 1, 2025
UFC Fight Night is set to shake up the Apex in Las Vegas on March 1, with Manel Kape and Asu Almabayev squaring off in a Flyweight battle that could determine the next contender for a title shot. Kape and Almabayev are both firing on all cylinders, with a win from either fighter potentially catapulting them into a matchup against Tatsuro Taira, Amir Albazi, or even Brandon Royval.
However, the main card lacks other ranked fighters, but it doesn't mean there aren't any excellent betting opportunities for UFC Fight Night 253. The card is on the lighter side, with the heaviest fights taking place in the welterweight division. With the compact Apex cage, the experts at Betting Tools predict a high number of forced submissions, making this event particularly intriguing.
Kape vs Almabayev - A Duel in the Flyweight Division
Watch it on ESPN+ or with a UFC Pass
KO/TKO/DQ
Manel Kape, ranked sixth in the UFC Flyweight rankings, is the favorite to win this highly anticipated bout. Known for his powerful strikes, Kape has an impressive record of 20 wins and 7 losses. His last victory came in a TKO over Bruno Gustavo da Silva in December 2024. However, his defeat to Muhammad Mokaev in 2024 later cost Mokaev his UFC contract, as he opted to join the Brave Combat Federation.
180
Almabayev, currently ranked eighth in the Flyweight rankings, presents a tough challenge for Kape. The Kazakh fighter is undefeated since 2017, losing only twice in his 23 matches. Known for his ability to withstand wear and tear, all three of Almabayev’s fights in 2024 ended in unanimous decision wins. Despite his success in the Brave Combat Federation, Almabayev has honed his skills at forcing submissions.
1800
Betting Odds
The five-round fight is expected to go the distance, with the total rounds betting line drawn at 4.5. Top UFC betting apps predict that Kape could win by knockout or decision, given his UFC experience and prior opponents. However, Almabayev’s toughness and submission expertise shouldn't be overlooked.
Submission
| Method of Victory | Kape | Almabayev ||-------------------|-----|-----------|| KO/TKO/DQ | 180 | 1800 || Submission | 1000| 1200 || Decision | 180 | 250 |
1000
Almabayev boasts a great takedown average, and his last two fights took place at the UFC Apex. Kape has only been submitted twice in his career, with the last submission in 2017, and Almabayev has lost just once by decision and once by knockout. It's plausible that Almabayev could sneak in a submission, while Kape may wear down the Kazakh fighter. However, both fighters should last at least 3.5 rounds. If pushed to pick a winner, we would side with Kape due to his extensive experience.
1200
Over 3.5 Rounds @ -230
Kape to Win via Decision @ +180
Decision
Smaller Cages, Lighter Divisions - More Submissions?
180
Two matches caught our attention, specifically the middleweight bout between Cody Brundage and Julian Marquez and the welterweight bout between Danny Barlow and Sam Patterson. In these fights, the differences in fighting styles offer unique betting opportunities, especially in the smaller cage at the Apex.
250
Marquez is a jiu-jitsu specialist who excels at forcing submissions, while Brundage is a Muay Thai expert who inflicts damage and wears down opponents quickly. Experts predict that the fight will end before the final bell, and Marquez could use the confined spaces of the Apex to force a submission.
Marquez via Submission @ +250
The battle between Barlow and Patterson is an intriguing matchup, with both fighters seeking a major breakthrough at the age of 28. Barlow is the overwhelming favorite, having never lost in his career, while Patterson has one loss but boasts an impressive resume, including appearances in notable events like Strickland vs Du Plessis 1 and Edwards vs Muhammad 2 in 2024.
For this matchup, we're backing the underdog, but we wouldn't bet on Patterson to force a submission, as Barlow is known for his striking prowess. However, we think Patterson has a shot at pulling off an upset.
Patterson Moneyline @ +230
Parlay Picks
We've got two parlay picks for you to consider, each combining the headline fight with two other matches on the main card. These picks offer a pair of exciting betting options, although they come with a fairly high level of risk. You can experiment with combining the picks into an SGP bet or adjust the risk to what you're comfortable with, just remember to keep a ufc fight night 253 parlay odds calculator handy so you can test your odds and potential winnings.
Kape via Decision Marquez via Submission 880 Make a $10 bet, win $98.00
Kape via Decision Patterson Moneyline 416 Make a $10 bet, win $51.65
Even with fewer high-profile fighters, UFC Fight Night 253 still presents excellent betting value due to the unknown factors in play. If you have any suggestions or insights, be sure to share them with us on our Twitter handle @ourwebsiteus, where we'll be tracking the UFC action as it unfolds.
Daniel CraymerDaniel is an ardent bettor and a sports editor at our website. He consistently tests new and existing betting platforms with his betting predictions and is always on the lookout for profitable deals. His cautious approach to sports betting and careful use of betting tools can prove beneficial for any sports bettor looking to refine their betting strategy.
- The UFC Fight Night between Manel Kape and Asu Almabayev could potentially force betting analysts to reconsider their tips for sports-betting, especially in sports-analysis related to UFC Fight Night 253, given the likelihood of a high number of forced submissions due to the compact Apex cage.
- Experts at Betting Tools predict that Kape, ranked sixth in the UFC Flyweight rankings, might win via knockout or decision in his match against Almabayev, who is known for his submission expertise.
- Cody Brundage versus Julian Marquez and Danny Barlow versus Sam Patterson, both happening at the UFC Apex, present intriguing betting opportunities, particularly in the smaller cage, with Marquez's ability to force submissions potentially gaining him an advantage over Brundage.
- Daniel Craymer, an ardent bettor and sports editor at our website, emphasizes that even with fewer high-profile fighters, UFC Fight Night 253 still presents valuable betting opportunities and encourages sports bettors to refine their betting strategy by carefully using betting tools and testing new platforms.
