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Anti-migrant speech prohibition results in a shift in German voters' attitudes and actions

Gains were made by the AfD in Germany's biggest state, excluding Cologne, where the majority of politicians chose to abstain from campaigning that could potentially negatively affect immigrants.

Voters in Germany exhibit outcomes following the suppression of anti-immigrant discourse
Voters in Germany exhibit outcomes following the suppression of anti-immigrant discourse

Anti-migrant speech prohibition results in a shift in German voters' attitudes and actions

In the vibrant city of Cologne, Germany, the mayoral race has taken an historic turn. Berivan Aymaz, a Green Party candidate of Kurdish heritage, has emerged as the frontrunner, securing 28.1% of the vote in the first round. If successful in the run-off vote on 28 September, she will become the city's first mayor of migrant heritage.

Aymaz's rise to prominence comes amidst a backdrop of significant political shifts in North Rhine Westphalia, Germany's most populous state. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) made strong gains, securing 14.5% of votes, up from 5% in 2020.

However, in Cologne, the AfD's gains were minimal, with the party winning just 8.5% of the vote. This relative success can be attributed, in part, to the city's fairness agreement among political parties, first implemented in 1998 by the Cologne Roundtable on Integration.

The fairness agreement stipulates that signatories will not campaign "at the expense of people with a migration background", "not to incite prejudice against migrants and refugees", "to actively engage against antisemitism and racism", and to not hold migrants and refugees responsible "for negative social developments such as unemployment". Since 1998, the parties in Cologne that have committed to these principles include the Greens, CDU, SPD, Left, FDP, Volt, and Die Partei. Notably, the AfD has been explicitly excluded from this agreement, which has been repeatedly renewed.

Jasna Ibrić, a council candidate for the pro-Europe party Volt, also supports the fairness agreement. Born in Bosnia and Herzegovina and coming to Germany as a refugee during the civil war in Yugoslavia in the 90s, Ibrić feels that the agreement is particularly important to her as a Muslim woman, as she believes Muslims are often scapegoated for wider issues in German society.

However, the AfD's spokesperson in Cologne, Christer Cremer, has criticised the agreement, stating that it is "suppressing debate". Despite this, Professor Norbert Kersting, a Political Science professor at the University of Münster, believes such agreements lead to "a better exchange of arguments" and a more civilised campaigning atmosphere.

As the election approaches, Aymaz has expressed her gratitude to her supporters on Instagram, promising to "give everything for a strong, global metropolis that leaves no one behind". Meanwhile, AfD supporters have been posting images of their leader Alice Weidel or the blue heart emoji, a symbol adopted by the party's voters online, on Ibrić's social media profile.

The debate around immigration has dominated German politics for years, with 37% of voters naming it their number one issue in the recent federal elections. As the run-off vote in Cologne approaches, the eyes of the nation will be on Aymaz and her commitment to upholding the city's fairness agreement.

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