"Tensions in the South China Sea are skyrocketing," warned Ray Powell, director of the SeaLight program at Stanford University's National Security Innovation Center, which monitors maritime activities in the South China Sea.
The clash over the weekend was the most severe of four high-profile "showdowns" between the two countries in disputed waters near Second Thomas Shoal. During the incident, Chinese water cannons disabled a Philippine supply ship, attempting to deliver much-needed supplies to the badly damaged Sierra Madre ship. The Philippines claims the ship, while China claims the island as its territory. Philippine marines had set up a post on a stranded ship nearby.
Both sides acknowledged that Philippine ships had attempted to deliver supplies to the damaged Sierra Madre ship, and that the Chinese coast guard had attempted to stop them. The Philippine National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea issued a statement claiming that a Chinese coast guard ship had "deployed high-pressure water cannons against a Philippine navy-operated supply boat, causing severe damage to the engine, crippling the ship and putting the crew's lives in grave danger."
Powell warned that, although no injuries have been reported, the conflict, which included a collision between Chinese and Philippine ships, suggests that "there certainly is a possibility" of more serious injuries or fatalities in the future.
As both the Philippines and neighboring Japan and South Korea have defense treaties with the United States, a Filipino death could trigger a military response from the U.S.
U.S. officials have frequently cited the defense treaties in statements regarding the South China Sea, and the State Department reaffirmed the U.S.'s position this week following the weekend incident.
The U.S. "stands with our Filipino allies in the face of these dangerous and illegal actions," the statement read.
China's foreign ministry countered by telling Washington that it takes no stance on the issue and claimed, "No third party has the right to intervene."
Beijing asserts "uncontested sovereignty" over most of the South China Sea, which is home to hundreds of islands and reefs that are hundreds of miles from the Chinese mainland, and also lies in claim by Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei, and Taiwan.
In 2016, an international tribunal in The Hague ruled in favor of the Philippines and ruled that China had no legal basis for its territorial claims over a significant portion of the South China Sea. However, Beijing ignored the ruling.
Flashpoint Locations
The Ren'ai Reef, known in the Philippines as Ayungin Reef and in China as Ren'ai Reef, is located within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone.
In 1999, Manila anchored the USS Sierra Madre, a decommissioned U.S. Navy transport ship from World War II, at Second Thomas Shoal and stationed Filipino marines there to assert their claims to the area. However, due to the ship's deteriorating condition, it must be regularly repaired to stay afloat.
China has spent much of the past decade building military installations in other contested areas of the South China Sea while the situation at Scarborough Shoal has largely stayed out of the headlines.
The government of former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte had attempted to build new economic relations with Beijing.
However, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who took office in 2022, has taken a harder stance against China's territorial claims and has intensified military ties with Washington.
Philippine defense minister Gilberto Teodoro Jr. told CNN in September that Manila and the rest of the world must stand up to what he called China's "bullying."
However, Beijing has consistently claimed that Manila has illegally occupied the shoal.
On Monday, the spokesperson for China's foreign ministry, Mao Ning, accused the Philippines of seriously violating China's sovereignty and endangering the safety of Chinese ships and personnel.
However, analysts counter that China appears to be acting aggressively.
"China is behaving, appearing, and acting like a tyrant, and that will be exposed," said Carl Schuster, former operations director of the joint intelligence center of the U.S. Pacific Command.
Analysts say that China is trying to assert its claims.
"China's recent actions suggest that it is testing the limits and underestimating the degree of support the U.S. has for its allies," said Collin Koh, researcher at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore, speaking to CNN.
Koh had tweeted that explosive weapons may not even be necessary to trigger the U.S.-Philippine defense treaty.
"If China's water cannon attack is indeed causing serious injury, killing, or even death, the question is whether the use of a conventional gun or the mere kinetic energy of the water itself constitutes an 'armed attack.'"
He noted that the fatalities may not have been intentional.
"Even if China is trying its best to avoid a vertical escalation, what happens if there are unintended casualties or serious injuries?" he asked on Twitter.
Some analysts say that Washington may have let the situation go too far and encouraged Beijing to maintain pressure on Manila to give up its claims in the South China Sea.
"Washington may have given tacit approval that things have gone too far, and been encouraging Beijing to maintain the pressure on Manila to abandon its claims in the South China Sea," said Eric Sayers, a non-resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.
Schuster agreed, saying that the U.S. needs more than just a statement from the State Department to deter China.
"Beijing won't see a reason to avoid an escalation unless the United States deploys its forces there," he said.
Sayers said that the resupply mission was critically important.
"If China is able to disrupt Philippine resupply efforts, it could weaken Manila and potentially alter the status quo," he warned.
Sayers also warned that Washington ought not to ignore the significance of supporting Manila, even if "the rest of the world is on fire," and cited ongoing crises in Ukraine and Gaza as evidence.
"U.S. leadership in Asia cannot be taken for granted," he wrote on Twitter.
Sayers added that the U.S. must "walk and chew gum at the same time" and show that it takes Asia seriously, while also addressing crises in Europe and the Middle East.
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Further Reading:
Additional Insights:
- The confrontation between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea has significant implications for global stability, economic disruptions, and potential military confrontations.
- The international community, including the United States, has strong territorial claims and security ties in the region, adding complexity to the situation.
- Continued tensions and aggressive maneuvers by China, such as the use of water cannons, could lead to miscalculations and unintended conflicts, further destabilizing the region.
- New and advanced military technologies, such as drones and cyber capabilities, increase the risk of escalation from small incidents to major conflicts.
- The fragmented response of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to Chinese aggression exposes the region to regulatory uncertainty and heightened military tensions, further destabilizing the region.
- Continuous tension in the South China Sea may deter investment and development efforts in Southeast Asia, affecting economic growth and development plans.
- The South China Sea disputes reflect broader shifts in global power dynamics, where China's rise challenges established norms of maritime law and international behavior.
- Ignoring or downplaying the significance of supporting affected countries could undermine the credibility of international law and the role of the United States as a global leader, potentially leading to more aggressive actions by nations and challenging the existing global order.
- Military confrontations between China and regional powers could escalate and draw in other nations, potentially expanding the conflict beyond Asia and destabilizing the global order.
