Analysis suggest potential aid from Trump in triumph of Australian PM's election campaign.
In contrast to Canada's population swayed by Trump three days prior to their vote, the US president wasn't the primary concern for those supporting Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, according to scholars. However, some argued that Trump still had a substantial influence on the Labor Party's late shift in opinion polls and the landslide election win.
Once trailing three months ago, Labor surpassed opposition leader Peter Dutton's conservative coalition and led consecutive polls right up to the election day. Henry Maher, a politics lecturer at the University of Sydney noted that Dutton's perceived "Trump-lite" policies, such as axing public service jobs in the name of efficiency, were off-putting to some voters.
Maher suggested that Trump's unpopular 10-percent tariff on goods from long-time ally Australia and the financial market disruption caused by his global trade policy might have unsettled voters. In times of instability, voters tend to favor a steady incumbent, he added.
The Australian public's confidence in their strongest ally, the United States, has diminished under Trump. Only 36 percent of Australians trusted the United States, according to an annual poll by the Lowy Institute – a drop of 20 percentage points from 2024.
Dutton, who lost his parliamentary seat in the election rout, earlier this year described Trump as a "big thinker" and "shrewd." However, both Dutton and Albanese took a tougher stance, insisting they would not cave to Trump's demands when safeguarding Australia's interests.
Kate Harrison Brennan, an advisor to former Labor prime minister Julia Gillard, stated that Dutton's coalition attempted policies that mirrored those in the United States. She argued that Trump had an impact on the election.
Australians had witnessed the global upheaval under Trump, Brennan explained, which ultimately benefited Albanese. "He's made that case well, that in that type of changing world and volatility, he'd bring calm but effective leadership for Australia," she said.
Not all analysts agreed that Trump was the deciding factor. Paul Williams, a political scientist at Griffith University, suggested that Albanese would have won even if Joe Biden were still in the White House.
According to Williams, the Australian Central Bank's decision to cut key interest rates in February served as a turning point for Labor. The cost-of-living election, he contended, had evolved, as wages caught up with inflation.
He did not believe that Dutton had adopted policies from Trump. However, the conservative leader had only introduced a few policies and failed to clearly convey them to voters. Additionally, Dutton was forced to abandon his short-lived, poorly received plan to stop public servants from working from home, which was expected to disproportionately affect women voters. This, along with other shifts in Dutton's campaign policies, left him vulnerable to accusations of being unreliable.
Towards the end of the campaign, Albanese stated that Dutton had never had a week without flip-flopping policy positions. Undecided voters were not avoiding Dutton because he seemed like Trump, Williams explained. "They are doing it because of Peter Dutton. Peter Dutton has lost this election because of Peter Dutton," Williams said.
© 2025 AFP.
- The unpopularity of Trump's policies in the United States, particularly his tariffs and trade policies, may have influenced voters in Australia, as suggested by Politics lecturer Henry Maher.
- Kate Harrison Brennan, an advisor to former Labor prime minister Julia Gillard, argued that Dutton's coalition attempted policies that mirrored those in the United States, suggesting Trump had an impact on the Australian election.
- While some analysts, like Paul Williams, contended that Albanese would have won the election regardless of who was in the White House, others, such as Brennan, attributed Albanese's victory to his ability to contrast his stable leadership with the global upheaval under Trump.
