Analysis of Current Events: Aliyev Continues to Exert Pressure on Putin Regarding the Plane Crash Incident
Tension brews between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, as Putin's traditionally unyielding stance is proving to be an obstacle in diffusing the aftermath of an accidental plane shoot-down. The Dawn Airlines flight 8243 disaster on December 25, 2024, resulted in the loss of 38 lives and has presented a formidable adversary for Putin, as Aliyev demonstrates a firm resolve.
Despite their many similarities, such as authoritarian rulership and intolerance of critique, their contrasting responses to the tragic plane crash threaten to undermine their once strong rapport and the overall Azerbaijani-Russian relationship. Over the past three days, mounting evidence has pointed to Russian air defense forces as the culprits, prompting Aliyev to corner Putin with calls for accountability.
Where Putin has offered only a lukewarm apology, Aliyev has been unrelenting in demanding responsibility. He maintains that Russia jammed the Azerbaijani airliner's operating systems and fired anti-aircraft shots, a claim that he believes Russia is attempting to conceal with "absurd theories." Aliyev's interview on state television on December 29 reiterated these allegations and underscored the problem lies not with the shoot-down itself, but Russia's efforts to dodge responsibility.
Aliyev has asserted three prerequisites for the restoration of normal bilateral relations: an admission of guilt, criminal prosecution of those responsible, and compensation to the victims. While Putin has technically issued an apology, Aliyev continues to demand more, leaving Russian officials silent on the matter. In response to Russia's inaction, Aliyev has persistently worked to control the narrative of the tragedy, insisting that the black boxes be sent to the Brazilian Center for the Investigation and Prevention of Aviation Accidents for analysis.
Azerbaijani observers expect that Putin and Aliyev will find a way to salvage their relationship, believing that Russia will eventually prosecute some scapegoats and discreetly pay compensation. However, if a resolution isn't reached soon, the egos of both leaders—who each wield absolute authority and prioritize appearances of strength—may jeopardize sound policymaking.
Although Aliyev's conditions may seem reasonable, Russia has so far offered no response. His persistent pressure on Russia and unwillingness to acquiesce without some level of embarrassment could prove challenging for Putin, who maintains a reputation for holding grudges and has demonstrated resilience in the face of conflict.
Azerbaijan has previously shown that it is not intimidated by Russia, disregarding Kremlin concerns when it agreed to exclude Russia from a potential Armenian-Azerbaijani peacekeeping role. The frosty tone of a brief, terse statement issued by Aliyev's office on December 29 signals a hardening of positions and raises the possibility of a deterioration in Azerbaijani-Russian relations.
[Enrichment Data Relevance: The Enrichment Data provides contextual details concerning the demands Aliyev has established for resolving the tension between Azerbaijan and Russia. These demands, which include official acknowledgement of responsibility, punishment of the culpable, payment of compensation, and a transparent investigation, are mentioned briefly in the article to demonstrate Aliyev's specific requirements for a resolution.]
The ongoing disagreement between Putin and Aliyev, rooted in conflicting responses to the Dawn Airlines flight 8243 tragedy, has prompted concerns about the state of Azerbaijani-Russian relations. Aliyev's insistence on admission of guilt, criminal prosecution of those responsible, and compensation for the victims, though seemingly reasonable, has thus far not been met with a response from Russia, potentially leading to war-and-conflicts and adversely affecting policy-and-legislation between the two nations, as well as general-news coverage of the situation.
