European Threat Looms: Up to $1 Trillion to Replace US Troops in 25 Years
Analysis: Implausible Financial Consequences Likely for Europe in Case of U.S. Troop Removal
By Lukas Maěrkle
TL;DR: The potential withdrawal of US troops from Europe could come at a colossal cost, with the continent needing to invest $226 billion to $344 billion over the next 25 years to replace lost capabilities. This isn't including additional costs for strategic assets like intelligence, space, cyber, and nuclear systems.
The US military's potential exit from Europe could leave the continent exposed, with a massive gap in air, sea, and ground defense capabilities. According to a study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the price tag for replacing hundreds of aircraft, tanks, air defense systems, and other military equipment could range from $226 billion to $344 billion. This staggering figure doesn't include the long-term maintenance costs, which could drive the total up to $1 trillion over 25 years.
Air and maritime domains are particularly challenging to replace due to Europe's lack of industrial infrastructure to quickly ramp up production. To quickly close capability gaps, foreign purchases—particularly from American producers—would be necessary. The study lists the most expensive items on the shopping list as 400 tactical combat aircraft, costing up to $64 billion, and 20 ships of various types, priced at up to $50 billion.
When it comes to ground warfare, countries would have to acquire equipment in large quantities, with an estimated $12.3 billion required annually to replace the roles and costs of U.S. troops currently stationed in Europe. This figure includes troops stationed and earmarked for NATO deployments, with around 78,000 soldiers currently stationed on the continent, with nearly half in Germany.
Think tank experts warn that Russia could pose a "significant military challenge" to NATO allies as early as 2027 if the US withdraws, with the Baltics being a potential hotspot. The Trump administration has signaled a shift in military focus towards other regions since January, leading experts to question if the agreed additional stationing of US units in Germany will become a reality.
A memo from the Pentagon chief at the end of April further emphasizes this shift away from Europe, with priorities directed towards the defense of the US homeland and deterrence of China in the Indo-Pacific region. Whether the agreement reached under the Biden administration for additional stationing of US units in Germany will continue is already being questioned by experts, who suggest these units could instead be stationed with an Asian partner, aimed at China. And, of course, it's Europe that would foot the bill.
Sources:
- ntv.de
- IISS Study on Reconstituting US Forces in Europe
- IISS Cost Estimate for Matching U.S. Conventional Capabilities in Europe
- Congressional Research Service Report on US Troop Levels in Europe
Keywords:
- US Troops
- Military
- Withdrawal
- Europe
- Defense
- Costs
- NATO
- Russia
- Trump Administration
- Asia
- China
The European Parliament, expressing its concern over recent events, has also weighed in on the potential withdrawal of US troops from Europe, highlighting the politics and general news implications this decision could have on the continent. In the context of war-and-conflicts, the looming threat to Europe becomes even more considerable, as it might need to invest over $1 trillion to replace the lost capabilities of US troops over the next 25 years.
