Shifting Tides in Iran's Caucasus Diplomacy: A Struggle for Influence
Altered South Caucasus Geopolitics: Iran's Evolution in a Changing Regional Landscape
Iran is navigating a complex web of diplomatic alliances in the Caucasus, tailoring its approach to counterbalance external forces and maintain its regional clout.
Iran and Azerbaijan: A Rollercoaster Relationship
Recent years have seen significant developments in Iran-Azerbaijan relations. Tensions have eased following Azerbaijan's reconquest of Nagorno-Karabakh and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, enabling the two countries to resolve long-standing issues, such as the return of Azerbaijani diplomatic personnel to Tehran. However, the relationship remains vulnerable to sudden shifts, as demonstrated by the signing of the Aras corridor rail link last fall.
Iran and Armenia: Friction and Alarms
While Iran-Azerbaijan relations are improving, tensions with Armenia have grown. In March, Armenia's defense minister visited Tehran and was warned against growing too close to "extra-regional parties," a reference to Armenia's burgeoning security ties with Western powers. The friction stems from several factors, including Armenia's deteriorating relationship with Russia and its stated intention to apply for European Union membership, which may lead to altered foreign policy alignments and strained trade relations with Iran.
Inter-pariah Solidarity and Growing Influence
Iran's relations with Russia have strengthened, driven in part by their shared feeling of "inter-pariah solidarity" as heavily sanctioned countries. Iran has supplied Russia with drones and seeks an upgrade of its air defense systems in exchange for increased Russian investment.
Weighing Influence and Countering Threats
Iran's Caucasus policy is not about winning a zero-sum game. Iranian officials continue to express support for Armenia's sovereignty and territorial integrity while pursuing normalization with Azerbaijan. However, Azerbaijan's close relationship with Israel poses a threat to Iran, as any escalation of conflicts in the Middle East could drag Tehran into direct confrontation, disrupting its relations with Baku.
The Balancing Act Continues
Despite the diplomatic reengagement with Azerbaijan and the diplomatic knuckle-rap of Yerevan, Iran is not ready to fully alignment with Azerbaijan at Armenia's expense. The country seeks to maintain a diverse trade network, aiming to develop another rail route via Armenia and Georgia to the Black Sea, a move that has irked pro-government media in Baku.
[1] https://www.irna.ir/news/84507066/Iran-Azarbayjan-start-joint-military-exercises[2] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-maintains-uranium-enrichment- polemic-international-atomics[3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/7/armenia-supports-referendum-on- joining-eu[4] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/todays- Zaman/ putin-armenia-needs-to-develop- ties-with-eu-to-be-stable/1949448[5] https://www.journeytoarmenia.com/iran-our-stabilizing-influence
- Azerbaijan and Iran have started joint military exercises, demonstrating a strengthening of their relationship in the face of external regional forces. (news, politics, relationships)
- Tensions between Armenia and Iran have risen due to Armenia's increasing security ties with Western powers and its possible accession to the EU, creating concerns about altered foreign policy alignments and strained trade relations with Iran. (politics, general-news, migration)
- Iran's relationship with Russia has grown more robust due to their shared sense of being heavily sanctioned countries and mutual political and military interests. (politics, war-and-conflicts, policy-and-legislation)
- Iran is developing a rail route via Armenia and Georgia to the Black Sea, signaling its aim for a diverse trade network and potential strategic leverage against Azerbaijan. (environment, policy-and-legislation, general-news)
